Game Preview: Wellington v Southland

Mills Albert Wellington Saints (1-1) v Southland Sharks (1-1)

Both the Saints and Sharks come together in the capital looking for a bit of consistency in their third game out. After a breakout opening victory the Sharks slunk to a major defeat leaving the question of which of those two performances is the real Southland? The Saints narrowly held on to their first victory of the year after losing their opener in double ot, can they get back to protecting the home court?

When: Wednesday 26 March, Rapid League 6pm, Sal’s NBL 7pm
Where: TSB Arena, Wellington
Watch: Live in New Zealand on Sky Sport 1 | USA: ESPN3 | International: FIBA YouTube
Boxscore here

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Last Time Out:

Wellington- The Giants jumped on the Saints early, holding a lead for most of the first half behind sweet shooting from big man Bryce Johnson (25pts, 11rbs) but as the game moved along the Saints steadied, taking a lead in the second quarter that they would never relinquish. Shaun Bruce (23pts, 4rbs, 5ast) and Izayah Le’afa (22pts, 7ast, 2stls) led the charge as Hyrum Harris (17pts, 8rbs) and Nick Muszynki (17pts, 7rbs, 2blks) did the heavy lifting on the interior. The Liam Judd (19pts, 5rbs) would lead a late charge to cut the lead down to 3 with 1:22 left, but the Saints would steady the ship to take the 94-86 win.

Southland- The Sharks travelled to Canterbury to take on the defending champion Rams who were still without any imports, giving the Sharks hope to sneak out an early season victory. The first quarter enjoyed a back and forth tussle where the Rams didn’t find the lead for most of the 1st quarter, but once they grabbed it they never let go as they cruised to a 120-84 win. 22 turnovers and just 4 trips to the Chemist Warehouse Stripe didn’t help the cause offensively but the defense that allowed 61% shooting overall and 50% from three was the key issue. Keylan Boone (26pts) was a bright light for the visitors but overall it was a game to forget.

What to Watch For:

This years Saints squad is playing at a slower pace and creating offense with the drive and kick while being more frugal with the basketball (11% turnover rate, 3rd best in league ) then in recent years. Le’afa and Bruce can run their pick and roll heavy action with the ball in hand or from the weak side while Muszynki and Harris provide bigs with different skill sets to work through. Despite the slower pace the Saints are giving up 100.5 ppg (2nd worst in the league) so will need to find better cohesion on the defensive end. If this one is close and comes down to free throws the Saints will have an advantage with their 85% clip from the stripe (1st in NBL) but have yet to find their form from deep where they are shooting a league worst 25% from three. All 5 starters average double figures but the depth has yet to contribute with just 5.5 points per game coming outside the starters..

Sharks- No team has a more effective offense (when they don’t turn it over) than the Sharks, who have a 61% effective field goal rate (tops in league). But remember how i mentioned turnovers? That’s because they are in possession of a 19% turnover rate. That could come down as the squad becomes more familiar with each other or it could be a product of not having a true point guard on the team. Caleb Asberry has yet to hit the heights of his run down the stretch of the ’24 season but has been solid and big man Josiah Allick has a multi-skilled set that can bully smaller players but may struggle against the size of Muszynki. Zo Burton will supply the deep threat but he isn’t the lone ranger as in previous years as Boone and Tukaha Cooper can help spread the floor as well.

Small Sample Size Stats:

Wellington – The Saints average the second most defensive rebounds per game (33) but have the second worst offensive rebounding rate (21%). Even on turnover margin overall (5th in NBL) they also have the 3rd best assist to turnover ratio in the league (1.74) but average the 11th most steals in the comp (5 stls per game). Behind the efforts of Nick Muszynki they lead the league in blocks (6.5pg). They ae last in 3-point field goal percentage (25%) despite having the 4th highest 3 point rate (43%).

Southland – They boast the leagues best 3pt% (40% from deep) and overall field goal percentage (52%) but also the leagues second worst 3pfg% defense (giving up 42% from deep) and overall (50% fg). The Sharks give up 95 points a game (10th in NBL) and average 91ppg (6th) while forcing turnovers at a high rate (12 steals per game, 1st) but their own issues with the ball mead they have the leagues worst turnover margin (-4.5 per game). Their 12.5 made 3’s per game leads the league.

Matchup to Watch: Nick Muszynki v Josiah Allick – Allick was the engine for the Sharks offense in the opener, but the frontcourt size and strength of the Rams made things considerably more difficult. Muszynki is the leagues premiere early season rim protector but if Allick can use his speed and athleticism to get him in foul trouble the balance of the game could shift to the Sharks.