Wellington Saints Grand Final Preview

Mills Albert Wellington Saints – Grand Final Preview

Overview

Record: 17-4 (1st overall)

Scoring Margin: +12.29 (1st in NBL)

League Rank in FG%: T-2nd (48%)

League Rank in 3PT%: 2nd (35%)

League Rank in FT%: T-2nd (74%)

League Rank in Assists: 3rd (20.90 APG)

League Rank in Rebounding Margin: 2nd (+4.33)

League Rank in Turnover Margin: 5th (+0.76)

League Rank in Blocks/Game: 1st (4.86)

League Rank in Defensive FG%: 1st (41%)

League Rank in Defensive 3PT%: 1st (29%)

League Rank in Defensive Rebound %: 1st (78%)

Strengths

Balanced scoring: Six players average double figures.

Rebounding dominance: +4.3 margin, driven by Harris, Marshall & Muszynski.

Ball movement: 20.9 assists per game; multiple playmakers in Bruce, Le’Afa& Harris

Interior presence: Muszynski’s finishing (65% FG) and Harris’ rebounding.

Defensive disruptors: 4.9 blocks and 8.0 steals per game.

Statistically, you could fairly say that the Saints are the most complete team in the league, combining elite scoring, lockdown defense, and disciplined execution. They lead the NBL in scoring margin and are top-tier in nearly every major statistical category.

Recent Form

The Saints head into the Grand Final on an 8-game winning streak. They’ve dominated both ends, averaging 95.1 points per game (+12.3 scoring margin) and holding opponents to just 82.9 and they swept the season series vs the Sharks convincingly (albeit against a Sam Timmins-less Sharks Team who was yet to reach their final form)

122–83 win (March)

93–72 win in Invercargill (April)

Offensive Breakdown

PPG: 95.1 (2nd)

3PM/Game: 10.10 (3rd)

Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.79 (2nd)

Offensive Rebound %: 26% (7th)

The Saints are efficient and unselfish, with six players averaging double figures. Their ball movement and shot selection are elite, and they consistently wear down defenses with depth and pace.

Defensive Breakdown

Opponent PPG: 82.9 (1st)

FG% Allowed: 41% (1st)

3PT% Allowed: 29% (1st)

Blocks/Game: 4.86 (1st)

Steals/Game: 8.05 (T-3rd)

Defensive Rebound %: 78% (1st)

Wellington’s defense is the best in the league, anchored by Defensive Player of the Year Hyrum Harris and league leading shot blocker Nick Muszynski inside, while Marshall and Le’Afa on the perimeter. They limit second-chance points and force tough shots.

The Players

Nick Marshall (G) PPG: 20.0 | FG%: 50% | 3PT%: 39% Marshall is the Saints’ top scorer and a consistent threat from all areas of the court.

The Saints’ offensive engine (20.0 PPG, 50% FG, 39% 3PT, 7.6 RPG) is a consistent scorer who can hurt the Sharks off the bounce or from behind the arc. He’s a force in transition but in the half court can work with the ball in hand or as a cutter from the weak side. Garnered an All-Star 5 nod and received the Keith Carr Trophy after being named the Most Outstanding Guard. Defensively works hard off the ball to avoid being screened while combining length and footspeed. Dropped big numbers against the Sharks including a 35-point explosion and will look to press that advantage again.

Izayah Mauriohooho Le’Afa (G) PPG: 15.9 | AST: 5.9 | STL: 1.95 Le’Afa is a two-way weapon, capable of scoring and locking down opposing guards.

Dynamic perimeter threat who leads the Saints in assists while offering volume shooting from deep on the season (59 made threes at 32%) his production saw considerable uptick in the latter half of the season as he stepped up his scoring and playmaking. Named Most Outstanding NZ Guard (John Macdonald Trophy)

Hyrum Harris (F) PPG: 14.2 | RPG: 10.3 | AST: 4.8

Harris is the Saints’ engine/glue guy/ heartbeat or your preferred descriptor. He offers top level rebounding, opportunistic scoring, and facilitating while also being a defensive anchor His relentless rebounding will be key on both ends of the court and he can grab and go to initiate the offense. The defensive player of the year can guard inside or out, but his physicality can draw whistles if he’s not disciplined.

Nick Muszynski (C) PPG: 14.6 | FG%: 65% | BLK: 2.6

Muszynski is a dominant post presence and rim protector. Paint powerhouse who is the most efficient finisher in the league. Protects the rim, finishes efficiently, and forces opponents to defend inside. He is the squads only true big and will need to stay out of foul trouble for the Saints to hold fort on the interior. His 1v1 work on Timmins will be of the utmost importance.

Jordan Ngatai (F) PPG: 15.4 | 3PFG%: 39% | BLK: 2.6

Ngatai offered ate-season impact as a versatile forward who can stretch the floor and defend multiple positions. Took a bit of time to find his fit in the offense but has been more aggressive down the stretch of the season, evidenced by scoring 11 opening quarter points in the semi final. Can drain it from deep or post-up on the block. defensively can guard any position with the strength to tussle with bigs and skill to harass guards. A Saint from way back, he’s a veteran leader with championship experience who can be leaned on in tight moments.

Bench Depth

6th Man – Shaun Bruce (G) PPG 16.6 | 3PT%: 49% | AST/TO: 3.3

The 6th man is a veteran leader and efficient facilitator (5.4 APG) and steady late-game presence. A luxury option off the bench who can impact the game if needed and will play starter level minutes.

Rangimarie Dougall-Mita (26 threes @ 33%), Samuel Gold and Kazlo Evans add perimeter shooting and hustle minutes when called on, with Gold the most likely to get the shoulder tap for

Key Factors

Defensive Pressure: Saints lead the league in opponent FG% and 3PT%. Shutting down Boone and Asberry will be key.

Depth & Rotation: Saints will likely only go 7 deep on their bench (but can play 9 in a pinch), a tight rotation. To allow the squad to maintain championship intensity for a full 40 minutes they will need to stay out of foul trouble throughout.

Transition Game: Wellington thrives in fast breaks, especially off turnovers—where Southland have struggled at times this year (including 19 to’s in the semi). If they get going downhill before the defense is set on their homecourt they can be a handful.

Rebounding Control: Saints are #1 in defensive rebounding percentage and will look to limit second-chance points, a tough task against Allick and Timmins, but if achieved will be key.

Danger Zone

Saints’ bigs will need to stay out of foul trouble to control the paint.

Perimeter defense must stay locked in vs Sharks shooters.

Balanced scoring must continue to avoid relying too heavily on one player

Final Word

The Wellington Saints enter the Grand Final in peak for behind their elite defense and balanced offense. They are deep, balanced, experienced, and dangerous at every spot on the floor. Their mix of elite scorers, facilitators, and defenders will make them the favourite coming in, but the Sharks will test them physically and mentally. If Wellington shares the ball, defends the arc, and controls the glass, they’ll be tough to stop.

To win the Grand Final, the Saints will need to

Stay even or better on the glass

Keep the Sharks from finding space on the perimeter

Not fall in love with the three point shot

Force turnovers to fuel a transition offense

Stay out of foul trouble