Sal’s NBL Final 6 – What does your team need to do to get there?

By Huw Beynon, Sal’s NBL General Manager

Wondering what your team needs to do to lock in a place in the Final 6? Working out what night you need to buy tickets for at Eventfinda Stadium? Or simply deducing how your favourite side avoids the Saints? Join the club! I’m here to help you through the puzzlesome quandary that is the Sal’s NBL Final 6 picture.

Firstly, if you’re a Sharks fan or a Jets fan, you can sit back, relax, enjoy the basketball stress-free, and worry about next year – you’re done. If you’re a fan of the Giants, Airs, or Tuatara, you know you’re in the Final 6, you just don’t know where you fit in to it all. This article will help. If you support the Saints, Hawks, Nuggets, Rams, or Bulls then may the basketball lords have all the mercy on all your souls, because this weekend is going to be more traumatic than thinking you look like Jack Salt, but then realising you don’t.

A quick, simple-as-I-can-make-it reminder of how placings in the Sal’s NBL ladder work.

Teams get 2 points for a win. The more points you have, the higher up the ladder you are.

If two teams are tied on points at the end of the season, the head-to-head record between those teams is the first tie-breakers. Who won the two-game regular-season series? If it was a tie, who’s points differential was better across those two games? If the points differential is exactly the same, then who has the best overall league points differential? If that’s the same, then I quit, and the two teams play a playoff game to decide the higher placed team.

If three teams or more are tied on points, a mini-ladder is created encompassing games involving only the tied teams. Most wins goes top of the mini-ladder. If two teams are tied in the mini-ladder, we look at the head-to-head (like above). If three or more teams are still tied in the mini-ladder we make another mini-ladder, this time ranking the teams on points differential from the games involving only the tied teams.

Simple right? Every single one of those tie-breakers above is in play this weekend (playoff game is highly unlikely, thankfully), which shows you just how competitive this season has been.

The Final 6 works like this – all games at Auckland’s Eventfinda Stadium

Wednesday 10th August

6pm – Play-in Game 1 – 3rd place v 6th place

8pm – Play-in Game 2 – 4th place v 5th place

Thursday 11th August

7:30pm – Semi Final 1 – 1st place v lowest ranked winner from Play-in Games

Friday 12th August

7:30pm – Semi Final 2 – 2nd place v highest ranked winner from Play-in Games

Saturday 13th August

7:30pm – Grand Final – Winner of Semi Final 1 v Winner of Semi Final 2

With one round remaining in the regular season, we cannot currently place anyone in one of the above spots with certainty.

So, spare a thought for the coaches and their ever diminishing hairlines, and enjoy this team-by-team guide to the potential make-up of the Sal’s NBL Final 6.

Buy tickets for the Sal’s NBL Final 6 here: Tickets for Sal’s NBL Final 6 – Auckland – Eventfinda

Highest possible finish – 1st

Lowest possible finish – 2nd

Remaining Games – @ Airs | Thursday 7:30pm | Sky Sport 2

Mike Fitchett’s men have had a stellar regular season, led from the front by MVP candidate Jarrod West. A top 2 finish is guaranteed, and Thursday’s game against the Airs in New Plymouth will decide who will finish in 1st place.

It’s a straight shoot-out people – If the Giants win, they finish 1st, if the Airs win, the Giants finish 2nd, as both teams will have 24 points, and the Airs will have won the head-to-head tiebreak.

Simplified – Giants win and come first. Lose and come second. How life was intended.

Highest possible finish – 1st

Lowest possible finish – 3rd

Remaining Games – v Giants | Thursday 7:30pm | Sky Sport 2

The top import trio in the league has led the Airs to almost unchartered territory, at least in recent memory, as they are locked into the Final 6 a year after coming dead last in the league and are many people’s favourites to lift the trophy at the end of next week.

Trent Adam’s men will desperately want to avoid playing on Wednesday night of the Final 6 though and can do so by locking in 1st place with a win over the Giants.

If they lose to the Giants, and the Saints beat the Tuatara, then the Airs finish 2nd. However, if they don’t win against the Giants, and then the Tuatara beat the Saints, the Airs will finish 3rd, as they have an inferior head-to-head to the Tuatara.

Simplified – A win will mean 1st place for the Airs and no Wednesday game. A loss means they hope the Saints get up on Saturday, or the Airs will need to win 3 times at the Final 6.

Highest possible finish – 2nd

Lowest possible finish – 5th

Remaining Games – v Saints | Saturday 7:30pm | Sky Sport Select

A hot start stood the league’s newest team in good stead in 2022, but a mid-season slump saw them overtaken by the Giants and the Airs. Aaron Young’s men can’t catch Nelson, but as explained above (in the Airs section) then can leapfrog Taranaki, finish 2nd, and avoid an extra playoff game if they take care of business against the Saints, and the Giants do them a favour. With Chris Johnson returning for the Saints game, they’ll be raring to go.

Scenarios if they lose to the Saints:

Tied on 10 wins with the Saints only – A loss would mean they’d be, at the very least, tied on 10 wins with the Saints. This scenario looks at if no one else is also on 10 wins. Now, the Tuatara beat the Saints by 15 in the capital city early in the season, so the result this weekend in Auckland could have a bearing. If they lose by 15 or less, they win the head-to-head, as they have a far superior overall points differential to the Saints (and every team), and will finish 3rd. If they lose by more than 15, the Saints will win the head-to-head and climb above them and they will finish 4th. Remember, that is only in this scenario – if you’re still breathing, let’s look at some others.

Tied on 10 wins with the Saints and Nuggets only – A Tuatara loss to the Saints and a Nuggets win over the Bulls would mean all three teams are on 10 wins and we’re into a mini-ladder situation (explained at the start of the article). In this scenario, all three teams are tied on 2 wins (scream face emoji), so we work out the points differential in games between the three teams. Currently, the Tuatara have a +42, the Nuggets a -17, and the Saints a -25 differential. So, if the Tuatara lose by less than 34 points they will finish 3rd, if they lose by between 34 and 59 points they will finish 4th, if they lose by 59 points or more, they will finish 5th. This will likely all change, of course, depending on the margin of victory in the Nuggets game. This is good fun; I’m having good fun.

Tied on 10 wins with the Saints and Hawks only – A Tuatara loss to the Saints, coupled with a Hawks win over the Rams, and we have a mini-ladder involving Auckland, Wellington, and the Bay. In this scenario, The Tuatara finish second on the mini-ladder with 2 wins (Saints with 3 wins, Hawks with 1) and therefore would finish 4th.

Tied on 10 wins with the Saints, Nuggets and Hawks – In this scenario the Tuatara have lost to the Saints, the Nuggets have beaten the Bulls, and the Hawks have beaten the Rams. Take that breath we spoke about… We’re into a four-team mini-ladder, or as I like to call it – a Mega-Mini-Ladder.

In this MML, the Tuatara (3 wins) would be below the Nuggets (4 wins) and Saints (also 4 wins), and above the Hawks (1 win), based on results between the four teams. Therefore, they would finish 5th.

Simplified – The Tuatara need a Giants win over the Airs to open the top 2 door. If not, it’s a game of pick your poison as they’ll be in the play-in games.

Highest possible finish – 3rd

Lowest possible finish – 7th

Remaining Games – @ Tuatara | Saturday 7:30pm | Sky Sport Select

Contrary to reports yesterday, the Saints aren’t yet definitely in, as you’re about to read. Those reports were my fault, and I apologise to Saints fans.

Still, what a second half of the season for Troy McLean’s men, after a stinky ol’ start. The reigning champs are sailing home with the wind behind them. A win locks them in (honestly) and a loss will still likely see them in, but not definitely. Scenario’s aplenty here for the Saints, I invite you to go cross-eyed with me:

Scenarios if they beat the Tuatara:

Tied on 10 wins with the Tuatara only – A win in Auckland on Saturday would see the Saints and Tuatara with 10 wins. If they win by 15 or less, they lose the head-to-head, as the Tuatara have a far superior overall points differential to the Saints, and will finish 4th. If they win by more than 15, the Saints will win the head-to-head and and they will finish 3rd.

Tied on 10 wins with the Tuatara and Hawks only – A Saints win over the Tuatara, coupled with a Hawks win over the Rams, and we have a mini-ladder involving Wellington, Auckland, and Hawke’s Bay. In this scenario, the Saints finish first on the mini-ladder with 4 wins (Tuatara with 2 wins, Hawks with 1) and therefore would finish 3rd.

Tied on 10 wins with Tuatara and Nuggets only – A Saints win against the Tuatara and a Nuggets win over the Bulls would mean all three teams are on 10 wins and we’re into a good ol’ fashioned mini-ladder situation. In this scenario, all three teams are tied on 2 wins, so we work out the points differential in games between the three teams. Currently, the Tuatara have a +42, the Nuggets a -17, and the Saints a -25 differential. So, it will depend on how the Nuggets game goes points-diff-wise, but the likely scenario is that the Saints finish 4th or finish 5th in this scenario, as the Tuatara have a healthy points differential.

Tied on 10 wins with the Tuatara, Nuggets and Hawks – In this scenario the Saints have lost to the Tuatara, the Nuggets have beaten the Bulls, and the Hawks have beaten the Rams, and we’re back to our Mega-Mini-Ladder.

The Saints would be tied with the Nuggets at the top of the mega-mini-ladder (with 4 wins each, Tuatara with 3, Hawks with 1). So, we’d revert to the head-to-head between the Saints and Nuggets: they split the series, but the Nuggets have a +10 points advantage. Therefore, in this scenario, the Saints finish 4th.

Scenarios if they lose to the Tuatara:

Solo on 9 wins – If the Saints lose to the Tuatara, and the Nuggets beat the Bulls, and the Hawks beat the Rams, then the Saints will be sitting alone on 9 wins. In this scenario they will finish 6th.

Tied on 9 wins with the Nuggets only – In this scenario the Saints have lost to the Tuatara, the Nuggets have lost to the Bulls, the Bulls have lost to the Sharks, and the Hawks have beaten the Rams. This would mean the Nuggets and Saints are tied on 9 wins. The Nuggets hold the head-to-head, so the Saints would finish 6th.

Tied on 9 wins with the Nuggets and Bulls only – So, here the Saints have lost to the Tuatara, the Bulls have beaten both the Sharks and Nuggets, and the Rams have lost to the Hawks. In this scenario, a mini-ladder is formed and all three teams have 2 wins. So, with all three teams still tied, we delve into the dark world of points differential within games involving those three tied teams. The Saints will finish either 5th or 6th, no matter the margin of victory for the Bulls over the Nuggets.

Tied on 9 wins with the Hawks and Rams only – Here the Saints have lost to the Tuatara, the Rams have beaten the Hawks, and the Bulls have lost to the Sharks. 3 team mini-ladder – Rams with 3 wins, Saints with 2, Hawks with 1. Saints finish 6th.

Ties on 9 wins with the Rams, Nuggets, and Hawks only – We’re knee-deep in mini-ladders now folks. In this situation, the Saints have lost to the Tuatara, the Rams have beaten the Hawks, the Nuggets have lost to the Bulls, but the Bulls have lost to the Sharks. Still with me? Okay – four team mega-mini-ladder – Rams come out on top with 4 wins, Hawks drop out with just 1. Nuggets and Saints tie with 3 wins again, so Saints finish 6th due to losing head-to-head with Nuggets.

Tied on 9 wins with the Hawks, Nuggets, Bulls, and Rams – God help us all. No, we can do this together. So (deep breath), in this scenario the Rams have beaten the Hawks, the Bulls have beaten the Sharks and Nuggets, and the Saints have lost to the Tuatara. Five-way tie, all on 9 wins. Enter the Massive-Mega-Mini-Ladder. Bulls top the pile (with 5 wins, alongside the Rams), Hawks at the bottom (with 2), Saints and Nuggets with 4 wins. Upon the points-diff mini-ladder we embark. Here, the Saints will finish 7th. This is the only way they miss the playoffs.

Simplified – The Saints are almost in, despite reports yesterday that they had made it (again, my bad). The only way they miss out is if five teams tie on 9 wins.

Highest possible finish – 3rd

Lowest possible finish – 7th

Remaining Games – v Bulls | Sunday 3pm | Sky Sport Select

The Nuggets have survived some rough patches in 2022. Illness, international call-ups, an import who went to NBA Summer League to name a few. They stayed the course however, and Brent Matehaere’s men find themselves on the cusp of the postseason. They host the Bulls on Sunday, the last game of the regular season, and will hope their fierce rivals, would have already done them a favour by beating Franklin two nights prior. If the Sharks don’t help them out… then things get very interesting indeed. Read on for more… if you dare:

Scenarios if they beat the Bulls:

Solo on 10 wins: If the Nuggets beat the Bulls, and the Tuatara beat the Saints, and the Rams beat the Hawks then Otago find themselves all alone on 10 wins and would finish 4th.

Tied on 10 wins with the Hawks only – Here, the Nuggets have beaten the Bulls, the Hawks have bested the Rams, and the Tuatara have repelled the Saints. That leaves the Nuggets and Hawks on 10 wins. The Nuggets beat the Hawks twice in the regular season and therefore hold the head-to-head, meaning, in this scenario, they’d finish 4th.

Tied on 10 wins with the Saints and Tuatara only – A Nuggets win over the Bulls and a Saints win against the Tuatara would mean all three teams are on 10 wins and we’re embarking on a mini-ladder journey together. In this scenario, all three teams are tied on 2 wins, so we work out the points differential in games between the three teams. Currently, the Tuatara have a +42, the Nuggets a -17, and the Saints a -25 differential. So, it will depend on how both games (Nuggets v Bulls, Tuatara v Saints) goes points-diff-wise, but the likely outcome is that the Nuggets finish 4th or finish 5th in this scenario, as the Tuatara have a healthy points differential (over everyone).

Tied on 10 wins with Tuatara, Hawks, and Saints – Gimme an M! Gimme another M! Gimme an L! Mega-Mini-Ladder!! The Nuggets come out nice in this MML, in fact they come out on top with 4 wins (Saints also have 4 but lose head-to-head to Nuggets, Tuatara have 3 wins, and Hawks have 1). Thus, the Nuggets would finish 3rd.

Scenarios if they lose to Bulls:

Solo on 9 wins – Like kissing your sister this one for Otago fans. They need the Sharks to beat the Bulls to give them the breathing room to lose to the Bulls themselves. If both those things happen and the Hawks beat the Rams, then the Nuggs are alone on 9 wins and would finish 6th, squeaking into the postseason.

Tied on 9 wins with the Bulls only – Here, they’ve lost to a Bulls side that has also beaten the Sharks in Invercargill. The Saints have beaten the Tuatara and the Hawks have beaten the Rams. This leaves the Nuggets and Bulls on 9 wins each, with only one Final 6 spot available. It comes down to head-to-head between the two teams. Earlier in the season, the Nuggets beat the Bulls by 17 points at the Stockyard, so in order win the head-to-head over Bulls, the Nuggets need to avoid losing by 18 or more. If they do that, they will finish 6th. If they do lose by 18 or more, they will finish 7th. If they lose by exactly 17, then it would depend on by how many the Bulls beat the Sharks, which we will know by the time these two tip-off on Sunday.

Tied on 9 wins with the Saints only – So the Nuggets lose to the Bulls, the Bulls lose to the Sharks, and the Saints lose to the Tuatara. That leaves the Nuggets on 9 alongside the Saints. Good news for the Nuggets is that they own the head-to-head over the Saints, so in this scenario they would finish 5th.

Tied on 9 wins with the Bulls and Saints only – For this to be the case, the Bulls would beat the Sharks and Nuggets, and the Saints would lose to the Tuatara. Three way tie means one thing and one thing only – mini-ladder. On this particular one, all three teams would have 2 wins. Currently, the Nuggets have a +27 points differential in games involving these three tied teams. The Saints have a +1, and the Bulls have a -28. So, if the Nuggets lost by 28 or more, they would come bottom of the mini-ladder, finish 7th and miss out on the Final 6. If the Nuggets lost by less than 28, they would come top of the mini-ladder and finish 5th. Confused? Me too. Want some more? Oh Lord, me too. Let’s continue.

Tied on 9 wins with Hawks, Rams, and Saints only – A four way tie brought about by a Nuggets loss to the Bulls, a Rams win over the Hawks, and a Tuatara victory at the expense of the Saints would mean a four-way mega-mini-ladder with one team missing the playoffs. Relax Nuggets fans, it wouldn’t be your team. They would end up second on the mini-ladder with 3 wins (and courtesy of a head-to-head advantage over the Saints) and would therefore finish 5th on the overall ladder.

Tied on 9 wins with the Rams, Hawks and Bulls only – For this to come to fruition, the Bulls have won over both the Sharks and Nuggets, and the Rams have beaten the Hawks. All four teams on 9 wins. In this edition of the mini-ladder, the Nuggets would finish 7th, as the Bulls (4 wins) and the Rams (3 wins, plus head-to-head superiority) would best them.

Tied on 9 wins with the Hawks, Rams, Saints, and Bulls – Massive-Mega-Mini-Ladder time ladies and gents. In this scenario the Nuggets have lost to the Bulls, the Bulls have also beaten the Sharks, the Rams have bested the Hawks, and the Saints have lost to the Tuatara. 5 way mini-ladder. Someone hold me, my knees are week. Here, the Nuggets would find themselves tied with the Saints on 4 wins, with only one of them able to make the playoffs. Here, it would be the Nuggets who finish 6th as they own the head-to-head with the Saints.

Simplified – The Nuggets will know what they have to do by the time they take the court on Sunday, as they play the last game of the season. They may have to win, they may need to just not lose by 28 points or more.

Highest possible finish – 4th

Lowest possible finish – 8th

Remaining Games – v Rams | Saturday 3pm | Sky Sport Select

It’s been a wobbly season for the Hawks. There’s been brilliance, but not consistently. They’ll approach the final weekend confident of beating any team they meet over the next 10 days, but first they’ll almost certainly need to get past the Rams, as mini-ladders are not kind to the Hawks. The buzzer-beating fadeaway from Tajuan Agee on debut at Cowles Stadium back in May could prove to be the most important bucket of the season. We shall see. Come, fly with me Hawks fans:

Scenarios if they beat the Rams:

Solo on 10 wins – For the Hawks to be the only team on 10 wins, they need the Tuatara to beat the Saints, and the Bulls to beat the Nuggets. This is a great result for the Hawks, the best result in fact, as it means they will finish 4th.

Tied on 10 wins with the Nuggets only – In this scenario, the Hawks have beaten the Rams, the Tuatara have beaten the Saints, and the Nuggets have seen off the Bulls, meaning both the Nuggets and Hawks have 10 wins. The Nuggets beat the Hawks twice in the regular season (remember the Josh Aitcheson tip-in?!), so the Hawks lose the head-to-head, and would finish 5th.

Tied on 10 wins with the Saints and Tuatara only – First mini-ladder setup for the Hawks here, and like every possible mini-ladder scenario, it isn’t pretty for Mick Downer’s men. They’d only have 1 win in games involving the tied teams, so would come bottom of the mini-ladder, and finish 5th.

Tied on 10 wins with the Nuggets, Saints, and Tuatara – Mega-mini-ladder needed here and, you guessed it, the Hawks are at the bottom. Just one win, but still in the Final 6, as they’d finish 6th.

Scenarios if they lose to the Rams:

Tied on 9 wins with the Rams only – if the Hawks lose to the Rams, and the Nuggets beat the Bulls, and the Saints beat the Tuatara, then the Hawks and Rams will be tied on 9 wins, with only one of them making the Final 6. Now, it would come down to the game score in Napier this weekend. The Hawks won by 2 in Christchurch earlier in the season (who could forget), and the Hawks have a superior overall league points differential (which would be the tiebreak if the head-to-head was dead even). So, if the Hawks lose by 1 or 2 points, they will finish 6th. However, if they lose by more than 2 points, they will finish 7th, miss the playoffs, and Hawky the imaginatively named Hawk nose dives into the Pacific.

Tied on 9 wins with Saints and Rams only – Okay, so let’s say the Rams beat the Hawks, the Saints lose to the Tuatara, and the Nuggets beat the Bulls. We’d have the Hawks, Saints, and Rams on 9 wins, with one missing out on the Final 6. That one would be the Hawks, who would finish 7th, as they would have only 1 win on the mini-ladder (Rams 3, Saints 2). Hawky, meet the Pacific. Pacific, meet Hawky.

Tied on 9 wins with Nuggets and Rams only – Here, the Hawks have lost to the Rams, the Nuggets have lost to the Bulls, the Bulls have beaten the Sharks, and the Tuatara have lost to the Saints. Hawke’s Bay find themselves on 9 wins with the Nuggets and Rams. Again, more bad news for the Bay. They would finish bottom of the mini ladder with 1 win (Rams 3, Nuggets 2) and would finish 7th and miss the playoffs.

Tied on 9 wins with the Nuggets, Rams, and Saints only – In this situation, the Hawks have lost to the Rams, the Saints have lost to the Tuatara, the Nuggets have lost to the Bulls, but the Bulls have lost to the Sharks. Four team mega-mini-ladder and, again, the Hawks are at the bottom with just 1 win and would finish 7th.

Tied on 9 wins with the Nuggets, Bulls, and Rams only – For this to happen, the Hawks have lost to the Rams, the Bulls have done the Deep South Double, and the Saints have beaten the Tuatara. We have a mega-mini-ladder situation, and the Hawks come bottom once again, with just 1 win (Bulls 4, Rams and Nuggets 3). Therefore, the Hawks finish 8th.

Tied on 9 wins with the Nuggets, Bulls, Rams, and Saints – Yep, here we go. Massive-Mega-Mini-Ladder time. Smart ones will know what’s coming: Hawks would be bottom of the pile with just 2 wins. Hawks finish 8th.

Simplified – For the Hawks, it’s a case of win and in. Lose and things get very, very dicey. A loss by 2 or less gives them the slimmest of chances but they’ll need multiple other results to go their way. Lose by more than 2 – Hawky goes swimming (they miss the Final 6), as any three (or more) way ties on the ladder spells the end of the Hawks.

Highest possible finish – 4th

Lowest possible finish – 8th

Remaining Games – @ Hawks | Saturday 3pm | Sky Sport Select

Another team who have suffered a disjointed season in 2022. Head Coach Judd Flavell arrived late from the Aussie NBL, as did some players from overseas. One import didn’t work out, one had a season ending injury. Players were called up for international duty, one’s season ended on that duty. All in all, a rollercoaster of emotion for Rams fans – one that could yet finish in joy or despair.

Of all the games remaining, the game in Napier against the Hawks is arguably the most influential on the make-up of the Final 6. Lose and the Rams are done, but win and things get tasty, especially as you’re about to learn that mini-ladders are very, very kind to the Rams. Let’s tuck in.

Scenarios if they beat the Hawks:

Tied on 9 wins with the Hawks only – if the Rams win in Napier, and the Nuggets beat the Bulls, and the Saints beat the Tuatara, then the Hawks and Rams will be tied on 9 wins, with only one of them making the Final 6. It would come down to the game score in Napier this weekend. The Hawks won by 2 in a fiery Christchurch encounter earlier in the season, and the Hawks have a superior overall league points differential (which would be the tiebreak if the head-to-head was dead even). So, if the Rams win by only 1 or 2 points, they will finish 7th and miss out on the playoffs again. However, if they win by more than 2 points, they will finish 6th and book a place in Auckland.

Tied on 9 wins with Hawks and Saints only – For this to happen, the Rams would have won in Napier (by any margin), and the Saints would have lost to the Tuatara. It’s time for a lédder à trois (three way mini-ladder). The Rams top this ladder with 3 wins (Saints 2, Hawks 1), so in this scenario, the Rams finish 5th and are Auckland-bound.

Tied on 9 wins with the Nuggets and Hawks only – Here, the Rams have beaten the Hawks, the Nuggets have lost to the Bulls, the Bulls have lost to the Sharks, and the Tuatara have lost to the Saints. Canterbury find themselves on 9 wins with the Hawks and Nuggets. Again, the mini-ladder kings survive, ending up on top of the ML, and finishing 5th on the league ladder.

Tied on 9 wins with the Bulls, Nuggets, and Hawks only – In this scenario, the Rams have beaten the Hawks, the Bulls have done the Deep South Double, and the Saints have beaten the Tuatara, meaning all four teams have 9 wins. To a mini-ladder we go, and the Rams come out nicely again. The Bulls top the ladder with 4 wins, while the Rams and Nuggets have 3 each. The Rams finish 6th thanks to their two wins over the Nuggets this season.

Tied on 9 wins with Nuggets, Hawks, and Saints only – Okay, so the Rams have beaten the Hawks, the Bulls have beaten the Nuggets but lost to the Sharks, and the Saints have lost to the Tuatara. Mega-mini-ladder time folks. No matter the size of the mini-ladder the Rams reign supreme, and in this particular case, would end up on top again with 4 wins (Nuggets and Saints 3, Hawks 1) – therefore, amazingly, finishing 4th in the League.

Tied on 9 wins with the Nuggets, Hawks, Bulls, and Saints – You know the drill. Sound the claxons, hail the alarms, it’s time for a Massive-Mega-Mini-Ladder. Here, the Rams have beaten the Hawks, the Bulls have beaten both the Sharks and Nuggets, and the Tuatara have bested the Saints, leaving 5 teams on 9 wins. You guessed it folks, the Rams survive the mini ladder with 5 wins (Bulls with 5 too, Saints and Nuggets on 4, Hawks on 2). This means the Rams would finish 5th.

Simplified – If the Rams lose, they’re toast. If they win, they are probably in. If they win by more than 2 points, they are definitely in. If they only win by 1 or 2 points, they will need other results to go their way.

Highest possible finish – 4th

Lowest possible finish – 8th

Remaining Games – @ Sharks | Friday 7:30pm | Sky Sport 2

@ Nuggets | Sunday 3pm | Sky Sport Select

Although we’ve come, to the end of the road, still I can’t let go… without discussing the chances of Morgan Maskell’s combative Franklin Bulls side. The only team with two games remaining, a Deep South Double against the Sharks and Nuggs, they also have the slimmest chance of making into the Final 6. They must win both remaining games. However, a slim chance is still a chance, and with the likes of Corey Webster donning the black and yellow in 2022, anything can happen. Let’s charge in.

Scenarios if they beat the Sharks and Nuggets:

Tied on 9 wins with the Nuggets: So they’ve beaten the Sharks in Invercargill and the Nuggets in Dunedin to finish the season. The Saints have beaten the Tuatara and the Hawks have beaten the Rams. This leaves the Bulls and Nuggets on 9 wins each, with only one Final 6 spot available. It comes down to head-to-head between the two teams. Earlier in the season, the Nuggets beat the Bulls by 17 points at the Stockyard, so in order win the head-to-head over Otago, the Bulls need to win by 18 or more. If they do, they will finish 6th. If they win by less than 17, they will finish 7th. If they win by exactly 17, it will revert to overall points differential, which we won’t know until the Bulls play the Sharks on Friday night.

Tied on 9 wins with the Nuggets and Saints only – For this to be the case, the Bulls would beat the Sharks and Nuggets, and the Saints would lose to the Tuatara. Three way tie means mini-ladder. On this particular one, all three teams would have 2 wins. Currently, the Nuggets have a +27 points differential in games involving these three tied teams. The Saints have a +1, and the Bulls have a -28. So, if the Bulls won by 28 or 29 points, they would come second in the mini-ladder (due to inferior head-to-head with the Saints), and finish 6th. If they won by 30 or more points, they would finish top of the mini-ladder, and finish 5th. If the Bulls won by less than 28, they would come bottom of the mini-ladder and finish 7th and miss out on the playoffs, which would be a particularly brutal pill to swallow.

Tied on 9 wins with the Rams, Nuggets, Hawks only – Here, the Bulls have done the Deep South Double, and the Rams have beaten the Hawks, and the Saints have beaten the Tuatara. The Bulls would love this to happen, as they beat the Rams twice this regular season. So, in the mini-ladder, the Bulls would have 4 wins (Rams and Nuggets on 3, Hawks on 1). The Bulls would finish 5th.

Tied on 9 wins with the Nuggets, Hawks, Rams, and Saints – I’ve saved the most complex situation for last. The 5 team massive-mega-mini-ladder, in which the Bulls have won both their games, the Rams have beaten the Hawks and the Tuatara have beaten the Saints. This 5 team mini-ladder sees the Bulls come out on top with 5 wins (Rams also with 5, Nuggets and Saints with 4, Hawks with 2). Therefore, thanks to their head-to-head superiority over the Rams, the Bulls would, incredibly, finish 4th.

Simplified – The Bulls need to win both games to stand a chance. The chance is still slim. They need results to go their way. If they’re still alive, they’ll know by how many they’ll need to beat the Nuggets when they tip-off on Sunday at 3pm to close out the regular season.

Summary

To sum it all up – it’s a hot mess, but it’s our hot mess. We’re in for an enthralling final round. Keep an eye on our socials, as the team will keep you up to date with all the potential scenarios as ones are crossed off by results coming in. By Sunday evening, we’ll have a Final 6. Who gets there, and who wins it all? Anyone’s guess. Someone call me a doctor.

Buy tickets for the Sal’s NBL Final 6 here: Tickets for Sal’s NBL Final 6 – Auckland – Eventfinda