Casey’s Corner: Road to the Final 6

With a tightly contested ladder condensing at we enter the final five weeks of the regular season I’ll take a look at the teams and their Final 6 prospects for the 2025 season. In 2024 8 wins gave you a chance to get (as three teams tied at the 8-12 mark) but for this year 9 wins seems like the number that will give a sniff while 10 wins will likely guarantee it. Read on to see where I see teams finishing and what is the path to get to the postseason?

**Editor’s note: This was written prior to the tip off of Round 12 between the Bulls and Saints**

Out, But Can Still Ruin Some Other Team’s Seasons

Night ‘n Day Otago Nuggets (2-12, Last, 93.6 points %)

6 Games Remaining

Magic Number – 6 (and a whole lot of help)

Home v Airs, Rams, Whai

Road Giants, Airs, Jets

Key Guard: Don Carey Jr

Key Big: Jono Janssen

X Factor: Jaylen Sebree

Question Mark: Are they motivated by playing the role of spoiler?

Technically a minor math miracle could happen where the Nuggets win out and somehow all the teams above them lose in exactly the right fashion for things to fall their way., but with a max win total of 8 games the Nuggets will look to play spoiler down the stretch. With 5 of their 6 opponents in the thick of the finals chase they will have quite a bit to say about what teams get to dance into the postseason.

What they need to go their way? – Everything and then some

Chances of making the Final 6? – 0%

Predicted Final Record – 3-17

So, you’re saying there’s a chance?

NBS Nelson Giants (4-10, 11th, 101.5 points%)

6 Games Remaining

Magic Number – 6

Home v Jets, Airs, Tuatara, Sharks

Away v Whai, Nuggets

Key Guard: Alex Robinson

Key Big: Jeremy Combs

X Factor: Liam Judd

Question Mark: Can they play both big men together down the stretch of games?

The Giants have played a much better brand of basketball of late and are only a few plays away from having taken 6 games straight leaving the Giants faithful contemplating what could have been. But with all but 1 remaining game against teams that are still in the thick of the chase they could pull off a miracle and win out to claim a finals spot. Is this probable? No. But, with the way the Giants have played of late it is possible that they continue their winning ways and reach their max win total of 10 games. If things go right, they for them they may even get away with a wobble and sneak in on 9 wins if they keep their win percentage up, which currently sits 6th, a very real possibility.

What they need to go their way? – Will need to find ways to utilise their size on both ends of the court and make up for the production of Hayden Jones and Lachlan Crate when they depart for the World Champs.

Chances of making the Final 6? – 7.5%

Predicted Final Record – 9-11

In the Mix for Six

Southland Sharks (6-8, 10th, 92 points%)

6 Games Remaining

Magic Number – 4

Home v Airs, Bulls, Whai

Away v Hawks, Tuatara, Giants

Key Guard: Keylan Boone

Key Big: Sam Timmins

X Factor: Caleb Asberry

Question Mark: Can they get stops when the need to?

The Sharks are another team that has looked vastly different since reaching their full roster strength. They’ll need to cobble together 4 more wins and will be confident that their current mix of talent matches up very well with most of the remaining schedule. They have essentially started post season basketball now, as every game from here out will have finals implications for both teams involved, and that is a great way to forge an identity. Their key will be defense as every opponent that has topped 90 points this season has walked away with a win.

What they need to go their way? – Will need to lift the defense and improve on their 2-5 road record, but if they can’t find a way to protect the Shark Tank they can hope that their 4-3 mark when heading North makes them a threat on the road.

Chances of making the Final 6? – 30%

Predicted Final Record – 9-11

Jadcup Auckland Tuatara (6-7, 8th, 95.4 points%)

7 Games Remaining

Magic Number 4 wins

Home v Whai, Sharks, Jets

Away v Jets, Saints, Giants, Hawks

Key Guard: Luther Muhammad

Key Big: Rob Loe

X Factor: Tom Vodanovich

Question Mark: Did they wait too long to make their run?

The Tuatara were finally able to get their full allotment of players on the court, then Rob Loe looked to aggravate an ankle injury that has been giving him trouble. He’ll need to be managed carefully moving forward as any real hope for the Tuatara lies in staying healthy. The addition of Zach Riley, Dan Fotu and last year’s MVP Luther Muhammad suddenly makes the Dino’s deep and uber talented, but They will need to lift their shooting from deep, currently sitting 10th in the league. But even without some hot shooting their defense should be able to carry much of the load, but not all of it. With 7 games left they have a bit of wiggle room and a higher ceiling than

What they need to go their way? – Stay healthy and find some form from deep

Chances of making the Final 6? – %60

Predicted Final Record – 11-9

The Northern Group Tauranga Whai (6-7, 8th, 102.4 points%)

7 Games Remaining

Magic Number 4 wins

Home v Giants, Sharks, Jets,

Away v Tuatara, Rams, Saints, Otago

Key Guard: Mojave King

Key Big: Anzac Risetto

X Factor: Sean Bairstow

Question Mark: Who’s in charge of putting the ball in the hoop?

The Whai have played fundamental basketball throughout the season, including early on when their talent level wasn’t up to snuff, grabbing wins that are proving crucial to the team’s finals chances. With 7 games remaining they have a bit of wiggle room but will need to pick up their form on the road, where they have just a 1-4 record on the year. If the size (Anzac Risetto) and the scoring (Mojave King) that they have added can mesh in with Matt Lacey’s squads’ ability to play efficiently while limiting turnovers they will find themselves in the thick of it right to the end of the season

What they need to go their way? – Find some form on the road while playing mistake free on their home court.

Chances of making the Final 6? – 35%

Predicted Final Record – 8-12

Big Barrel Hawks (7-8, 6th, 94.1 points%)

5 Games Remaining

Magic Number 3 wins

Home v Rams, Airs, Sharks, Saints, Tuatara

Away v N/A

Key Guard: Dan Grida

Key Big: Luca Yates

X Factor: Brandon Alston

Question Mark: Who’s the second big man again?

The Hawks have a favourable schedule down the stretch but have only produced a 2-3 record when trying to protect the nest this season, and it doesn’t help to have 3 of the top 4 teams on the ladder visiting. They have proven to be one of the most tenacious two-way teams in the league this year (their last run against the Giants withstanding) but with Brandon Alston replacing Darnell Cowart they have taken a big hit on their interior strength. Will they be able to make up for that with an uptick in speed and defensive intensity?

What they need to go their way? – Protect the Nest! And a whole lot of group box outs on the big guys coming to town!

Chances of making the Final 6? – 33%

Predicted Final Record – 9-11

Logik Franklin Bulls (7-8, 5th, 95.6 points%)

5 Games Remaining

Magic Number 3 wins

Home v Saints, Airs, Jets

Away v Sharks, Rams

Key Guard: Tae Hardy

Key Big: David Okwera

X Factor: Ethan Rusbatch

Question Mark: How long till Flynn Cameron is playing at full speed?

The Bulls tipped off the season looking in mid-season form on both ends of the court, but as the season has progressed opposing teams have sussed out ways to limit their effectiveness offensively while finding more ways to penetrate a tough defense. They will need to lift their offense, as they’ve only managed to hit the 90-point barrier twice in the last eight games. Flynn Cameron enters the mix which will offer another creator, and the balance of talent may have shifted back in their favour. Turnovers have been their biggest concern in the recent tight games and across the season as no squad averages more. Their points percentage is a concern, giving tie breakers

What they need to go their way? – Protect the Nest! And a whole lot of group box outs on the big guys coming to town!

Chances of making the Final 6? – 40%

Predicted Final Record – 9-11

Locked in, I Think?

Property Brokers Manawatū Jets (8-5, 4th, 102.3 points%)

7 Games Remaining

Magic Number 2 wins

Home v Tuatara, Rams, Nuggets

Away v Giants, Bulls, Tuatara, Whai

Key Guard: Dontae Russo-Nance

Key Big: Kenny Goins

X Factor: Isaac Miller-Jose

Question Mark: Will Webster come back?

The Jets have been on a heater, taking down 6 wins in their last 7 games and have been without their top scorer and most prestigious recruit Corey Webster showing a great level of resilience. To finish the season, they will need continue to protect their home court (6-1 on the season) while finding a way to lift their fortunes away from home (2-4 record). Two games against the Tuatara could prove vital for both teams, but only their last game of the season will be without finals qualifications.

What they need to go their way? – A return of C Webb would be a boon, but otherwise just taking care of business when it comes to beating teams below them on the ladder.

Chances of making the Final 6? – 75%

Predicted Final Record – 11-9

Steelformers Taranaki Airs (8-5, 4th, 103.4 points%)

7 Games Remaining

Magic Number 2 wins

Home v Giants, Nuggets

Away v Sharks, Nuggets, Hawks, Bulls, Rams

Key Guard: Carlin Davison

Key Big: Jack Andrew

X Factor: Armon Fletcher

Question Mark – Who’s the starting pg gonna be?

Question Mark What they need to go their way? – The Airs have had a turbulent season when it comes to roster building, and it looks like it may get a wee bit bumpier with the way that Owen Foxwell has been playing with the Aussie NBL Next Stars team at the Adidas Eurocup. Without their PG playmaking falls into the lap of Davison, and while capable, that is a whole lot to put on the plate of the 21year-old. They have great size across the glass and a surprising amount of depth. Their 4-1 record away from home makes the remaining schedule less daunting and while they I see them locked into a finals spot, I’d feel better about their chances to make a title

What they need to go their way? – Having a starting point guard in the building would be a good start but otherwise maintaining their pace and enforcing their gameplan on their opponents

Chances of making the Final 6? – 90%

Predicted Final Record – 12-8

Locked in

Mills Albert Wellington Saints (11-4, 2nd 110.9 points%)

5 Games Remaining

Magic Number 0 wins

Home v Tuatara, Whai, Rams

Away v Bulls, Hawks

Key Guard: Izayah Le’afa

Key Big: Nick Musyznski

X Factor: Hyrum Harris

Question Mark – Shea Ili’s availability

The Saints continue to work their way though the schedule equally as confident on the road as they are when playing on the waterfront in Welly but haven’t looked like a well-oiled machine without the likes of Shea Ili (injury) and Shaun Bruce (still on the roster) in the lineup. Defensively they match up well with just about every opponent, but they are thin when it comes to bigs, with just Nick Musyznski rostered as a true 5 man. But that is unlikely to be an issue till they get to the postseason, so the remainder of the schedule will be about tweaking the rotations and schemes to find the best version of themselves.

What they need to go their way? – They’ve done the hard yards, now need to see how hight they can lift the ceiling. Getting Ili or Bruce back wouldn’t be too shabby either.

Chances of making the Final 6? – 100%

Predicted Final Record – 14-6

Wheeler Motor Company Canterbury Rams (11-2, 1st 112.3 points%)

7 Games Remaining

Magic Number 0 wins

Home v Whai, Airs, Bulls

Away v Hawks, Nuggets, Jets, Saints

Key Guard: Taylor Britt

Key Big: Tohi Smith-Milner

X Factor: C.J. Penha

The Rams have been machine like for much of the season, featuring a level of depth that few teams in the league can come close to matching. That depth encourages an up-tempo pace of play throughout everything the Rams do on court. But things have been getting a little bit tougher of late, with their last 6 of their last 8 games coming down to late game performance. Of course, the other 2 games before that were 50 point blowouts so I may be picking nits.

What they need to go their way? – Stay healthy and keep focused.

Chances of making the Final 6? – 100%

Predicted Final Record – 17-3