Southland Sharks Grand Final Preview

Southland Sharks – Grand Final Preview

Overview

Record: 14-8 (5th overall)

Scoring Margin: +1.50 (4th)

League Rank in FG%: 1st (48%)

League Rank in 3PT%: 1st (38%)

League Rank in FT%: T-2nd (74%)

League Rank in Assists: 2nd (21.41 APG)

League Rank in Rebounding Margin: 3rd (+4.18)

League Rank in Turnover Margin: 11th (-4.73)

Strengths

Rebounding muscle: +4.2 margin, driven by Allick, Timmins & Boone.

Balanced inside-out attack: Boone & Asberry outside, Allick & Timmins inside.

Playmaking: Asberry (7.5 APG) orchestrates an offense that averaged 21.4 assists per game and has willing passers at every position

Interior defense: 4.2 blocks per game; Timmins & Allick alter shots and dominate the paint with elite physicality

They Are Hot!!: 9 straight wins built on rebounding, defense, and efficient shooting.

The Sharks are a high-efficiency offensive team with elite shooting and rebounding. They continue to struggle with ball security, ranking last in turnover margin, which has been a key issue in their regular season losses against the Saints, but a problem they have overcame during their current winning streak.

Recent Form

The Sharks enter the Grand Final as the hottest team in the matchup, riding a 9-game winning streak, the second longest in the league this season. They’ve surged late: averaging 91.0 points per game and posting a +7.8 scoring margin across the streak. After starting 1–5, Southland turned their season around behind dominant rebounding (+4.2 margin) and improved perimeter shooting (38% 3PT in last 9 games).

The regular season matchup with the Saints wasn’t kind, but that was a different (and Sam Timmins-less) Team, and they dropped both games in less than ideal fashion.

122–83 win (March)

93–72 win in Invercargill (April)

Offensive Breakdown

PPG: 91.0 (5th)

3PM/Game: 10.91 (2nd)

Offensive Rebound %: 29% (3rd)

Assist/Turnover Ratio: 1.39 (7th)

The Sharks are deadly from deep, led by Keylan Boone (45% 3PT), Alonzo Burton (42%), and Tukaha Cooper (41%). Their ball movement is solid, but they must limit turnovers to keep control of the game.

Defensive Breakdown

Opponent PPG: 89.5 (6th)

FG% Allowed: 43% (2nd)

3PT% Allowed: 32% (3rd)

Blocks/Game: 4.23 (3rd)

Defensive Rebound %: 73% (6th)

While not a lockdown unit, the Sharks have proven to solid defensively, especially in the paint with Timmins and Allick. Their perimeter defense is respectable, but they’ve struggled to contain elite offenses, like Wellington’s,

Key Matchups vs Wellington Saints

The Players

Josiah Allick (F/C) PPG: 19| FG%: 60% | RPG: 11.4 The MVP, his work rate is relentless and his energy is contagious. The Sharks can’t fire without him

Paint enforcer who brings toughness, rebounding dominance, and second-chance points. Impossible to block out and has been playing with great efficiency. Normally only a paint threat but hit 3/4 3pfg in the semifinal so can’t be ignored on the perimeter.

Caleb Asberry (G) PPG: 15.8 | APG: 7.5| 3PT%: 39% Creates for teammates and scores when needed, his play keeps the offense balanced.

Has lifted his play down the stretch while balancing his facilitating and scoring duties. Has been one of the assist leaders all season long but had a season high 35 in the elimination final. Turnovers are higher than you would like from a PG (5 straight games with 5 or more), but they come with his aggressiveness, which is often needed by a Sharks team without a ton of options off the bounce.

Keylan Boone (F) PPG: 21.1| APG: 1.9| RPG: 7.6 Go-to scorer and stretch threat shooting 45% from deep.

Dynamic forward who can score inside and space the floor critical to countering the Saints defense. Has scored in double figures every game this season. Doesn’t need to get his number called to impact the game but a bit more ball in hand wouldn’t hurt.

Sam Timmins (C) PPG: 13.9| RPG: 8.1 | BLKS: 2.1 The Sharks season changed with his arrival

Late-season addition who acts as the anchor inside. Protects the rim, cleans the glass, and adds interior scoring punch. His paint patrols have unlocked the defense, allowing greater pressure to be applied. Allick is a huge benefactor of his presence, as the biggest defender is now occupied with Timmins. An excellent passer who is tough to stop on the low block. Watch out for the spin move baseline cause it is coming sooner or later.

Tukaha Cooper (G/F) PPG: 9.7 | RPG: 2,3| 3PFG: 41% Key defender and cutter off the weak side offensively

Emerging threat who has found his feet as the season has gone along. Provides energy and timely buckets off the wing. Has hit double figures in four out of five games, but was 0-7 in the fifth.

Bench Depth

Alonzo Burton PPG: 10.3 | RPG: 2,3| 3PFG: 42%

Veteran shooter who can’t be left alone, provides depth on the wing on both ends, his gravity beyond the arc will stretch the defense.

Brayden Inger PPG: 6.1| RPG: 4.7| 3PFG: 29%

Playing twenty plus minutes per game, brings positional versatility and can get streaky from deep.

Key Factors

Turnover Control: Southland must reduce their 15.5 TOPG to avoid giving the Saints easy transition points.

Boone’s Hot Hand: If Keylan Boone gets going from deep, it could stretch Wellington’s defense and open up the paint.

Timmins vs Muszynski: A battle of bigs—Timmins and Muszynski play similar roles, from rim protection to efficient scoring the tug of war between these two will be crucial.

Allick vs Harris: The matchup of the teams heartbeats, which one imposes their will?

Defensive Rebounding: Wellington leads the league in defensive rebounding % (78%). Sharks must crash the offensive glass effectively (currently 3rd in OREB%).

Danger Zone

Need to limit turnovers (15.5 per game) against the Saints’ aggressive defense.

Allick and Timmins must control the defensive glass to deny second chances to Marshall & Harris and the rest of the Saints

Boone and Asberry’s shooting is vital to stretch Saints’ interior defenders, if they are hitting the Saints will be stuck in long rotations.

Final Word

The Sharks enter the Grand Final as underdogs but also as the league’s most in-form team.

Statistically they are one one of the most efficient offensive teams in the league and that has driven a late-season surge while their frontcourt rebounding power, and balanced offense make them a real threat.

Early in the season their turnover issues and defensive lapses were been exposed, especially in two big losses to the Saints, but this is a team that has evolved and now impose their will on the opposition. If Southland can take care of the ball, own the boards, and get Boone and Burton going from outside, they could complete a remarkable turnaround with a championship.

To win the Grand Final, the Sharks will need to

Play their cleanest game of the season, discipline and ball control are key

Shoot above 40% from three to stretch the Defense

Win the rebounding battle

Limit Wellington’s transition game