Image: Photo Wellington
Mills Albert Wellington Saints (2-2, 7th) v Logik Franklin Bulls (4-1, 3rd)
When: Friday 28 March, Rapid League 6:00pm, Sal's NBL 7:00pm
Where: TSB Arena, Wellington
Watch: Live in New Zealand on Sky Sport 2 | USA: ESPN3 | International: FIBA YouTube
Box score here
Last Time Out:
The Saints traveled to Christchurch to take on the Rams with third position on the ladder going to the victor, but the Rams were too strong as the home team took the 99-81 win in a wire to wire victory. The first few minutes stayed close, but Max Darling came off the bench to drop 17 first half points and push the Rams to a double digit first quarter lead. Nick Marshall (20pts, 6rbs) pushed the offense back into touch distance in the second half as the lead was whittled down to singe digits, but when Tama Isaac (21pts, 3rbs, 3ast) hit a driving layup to end the third the lead was back to 15 and out of reach of a Saints team that only had 4 points come off the bench.
The Bulls traveled to Nelson and took control of the game early, as they welcomed Flynn Cameron (15pts, 5rbs) into the fold for the first time this season. The Giants bounced back as Calum Dalton (13pts, 3rbs, 6ast) and Jaylen Forbes (12pts) found the net to take a 4 point second quarter lead. But Reuben Te Rangi (14pts, 3rbs) and Tae Hardy (19pts, 5rbs, 8ast) would push back to take a 4 point halftime lead that would methodically stretch out to 16 down the stretch as the Bulls pushed themselves to their 4th win, equal highest in the league.
What to Look for
The Saints play with pace and search out early opportunities in transition from deep and through basket attacks leading to the second highest scoring team in the league (101.75). The pace has led to an early season defense that is more porous than many expected, giving up the 4th most points per game in the league (95.75). The backline of defense offers shot blocking from Nick Muszynski (3 blks per game, 1st in league) and tough board work from Hyrum Harris (15.8ppg, 10rbs, 5.3ast) but a lack of turnovers forced (second lowest opponent turnover rate of 11%) and inability to push opponents off the 3 point line (44% three point rate allowed, 2nd highest in league) has kept the defense from slowing down opponents.
The Bulls have been mostly dominant through out the season and are one cold fourth quarter (against the Hawks) away from a perfect record behind stout defense and an offense that shoots 64% of it's shots at the rim or in the paint. The offense has been too careless with the ball (18% turnover rate, worst in league) but have made up the possessions with solid rebounding on both ends of the court and the third highest steal rate in the league (11%). Despite the prolific=ness of the rim attacks the free throw rate remains low (24% 10th) but the squad has found offense through sheer force of will. Til Gloger and David Okwera provide a great combo of size, strength and athleticism up front while Tobias Cameron and Reuben Te Rangi are on the short list of burliest wings in the league and the entirety of the team looks to impose their physicality on the opposition.
The speed of the Saints could provide an antidote to the Bulls physicality, but with Hardy and Flynn Cameron Franklin now has the personnel to swap identities if needed. Neither team has a ton of trust in the bench but the nod here lies slightly with Franklin and the weapons they can now bring in off the pine.
Small Sample Size Stats:
Saints - Sit third in effective field goal percentage (56%) and have the third lowest turnover rate in the comp (11%) with the second highest assist percentage (63%). This is tempered by the lowest steal rate in the league (6%). The third highest block rate (10%) is more impressive with the second lowest opposition free throw rate (22%). Their third highest three point rate (43%) is bolstered by the the leagues 3rd highest 3point percentage (35%). Claim the second lowest offensive rebounding rate (21%) in the league.
Bulls- League worst turnover rate (18%) combines with the second lowest assist rate (51%) puts pressure on the squad to win 1 on 1 matchups. They have the league high block rate (12%) and third highest steal rate (11%) which combines with the second highest defensive rebounding rate (80%) and third highest offensive rebounding rate (32%).
Matchup to Watch: Izayah Le'afa v Tae Hardy - Two powerful guards who can impose their will defensively while overwhelming defenses that don't send help. Both are shooting 30% or under from three, so the player that finds a bit of form from deep can bend the result in their squads favour.
