Casey’s Preview: Auckland Vs Franklin

Photo credit: Masanori Udagawa/Photo Wellington

The ‘Battle for the 09’ gets a third session for the second year in a row as the Auckland Tuatara and Franklin Bulls will meet once again in a semi-final with a chance to take down the defending champion Canterbury Rams on the line. The Tuatara have claimed both meetings this year (92-74 on their home court in April and 89-78 on the road in June) but both teams will feature different looks than what was brought to bear in the previous matchups. The main question being, with the Bulls changes be enough to alter the result or will the Tuatara find their form once again and make it 3 from three against their cross-town rival?

The Tuatara have only been on the court twice this month and only once at full strength but neither performance was very convincing. They escaped the Airs with a slender 1 point win before going down to the Hawks in a shootout. With two weeks off the court since their last game there has been plenty of time to get bodies healthy, but will the training court be enough to get these Tuatara up to Finals intensity. The full strength lineup is impressive on both ends of the court, led by Rob Loe (9th in the league in scoring) on the block and Corey Webster (8th in the league is scoring) on the perimeter while Tom Vodanovich and Rueben Te Rangi offer options in all areas. Cam Gliddon comes off a game where he dropped 5 out of 5 from deep and swiped 4 steals to highlight the danger he poses as a two way threat. Braydon Iuli Has found double figures in 5 straight games and his development offers a dynamic ball handler off the bench that the Tuatara have lacked in recent years when their championship chases fell just short. Charlie Dalton joins him having hit double figures in 5 straight games and offers a similar boost of energy of the pine for the frontcourt.

The Bulls have been solid all season long but have lifted their play to a different level in the latter stage of the season. The most particular change has been the Bulls lift from 3, after averaging just over 6 makes per game during the regular season, their 15 makes from 3 mark the third straight game they had hit double digits from deep. Part of that is an Ethan Rusbatch resurgence (where he has hit 4 3’s or more in in 4 of his last 5 games while shooting 9 attempts in 4 of the 5) and a more assertive Isaac Davidson from deep as well. League top scorer Luther Muhammad prefers shooting inside the arc and is a deadly mid-range weapon but even he is coming off a 3-3 game from deep (after having hit just 13 3’s throughout the regular season). With the recent uptick in 3’s for Lee Skinner is added in (40% 3pfg on the year) this is now a different offensive team then what was shown throughout the majority of the year. This recent focus on the 3-ball has shifted some of the focus from the paint but Sam Timmins, Dom Kelman-Poto and Lee Skinner still have the strength upfront especially when combined with the slashing ability of Josh Scott. Unlike Bulls teams of recent years this is a squad that enjoys playing at speed (2nd fastest pace in the league) but has the ability to grind it out in the half court at the same time negating many of the issues they had encountered early in the season. The Bulls have already proven they can beat the best teams in the league on the road but the one team that has always had their number has been the Tuatara, who are 6-1 against the Bulls since officially joining the league.

Stats Amazing!

-The Bulls average the second lowest made 3’s per game in the NBL at 7.2 per outing but have hit at least 10 in their last three games, including a season high 15 in the Final 6 win against Wellington

-Auckland leads the league in made 3’s at 10.4 per game and is second in 3-point field goal percentage at 35.5%. Second to just Franklin at 37%.

-The Bulls have the highest efficient field goal percentage in the league (55%) the Tuatara just percentage points behind (also 55%)

-Auckland is second in defensive rebound percentage (77%), Franklin third in the same category (76%)

-The Bulls are third in offensive rebound percentage at 31%, Tuatara 9th in the league at 24%

-The Tuatara went to the line 41 and 31 times in their Bulls matchups, the Bulls 18 and 9 times in the respective games

-The Bulls only grabbed 5 offensive rebounds in their first loss to the Tuatara, their second lowest total in any game this season (their lowest total was 2 in their 2nd win over the Rams)

-The Bulls lost every game they shot less than 45% from the floor

-The Tuatara lost 3 of the 8 games where they shot 16 free throws or less

The Bulls lost five of the seven games they played in which they grabbed less than 25 defensive rebounds

-Auckland lost three of the four games in which the grabbed 5 offensive rebounds or less

Key Matchup’s

Rob Loe v Sam Timmins – Rob Loe has been the best kiwi big in the league for 3 years running but Sam Timmins has all the tools to make it tough on him. If Timmins is able to match the output and effect of Loe it will tilt things in the Bulls favour.

Corey Webster v Luther Muhammad – Their time matched up on each other may end up being limited, but either of this pair finds the space to have a big night it will make grabbing a win that much more difficult.

Braydon Iuli v Josh Scott- Which 6th man is going to have the bigger impact off the bench? Both come in and lift their teams transition attacks while also offering some punch on the defensive end. Given this is Finals basketball that energy infusion off the bench could be key to lifting their teams fortunes.

Prediction – Auckland by 3. The Bulls look to be a different team then the Tuatara found earlier in the season and the Tuatara will have to get themselves up to playoff intensity having played only twice since these teams last met on June 29th (over 3 weeks ago). This could easily go the other way, especially if the Bulls get off to a quick start or match Auckland from deep, but with the extended rest period the Tuatara should have enough in reserve to get over the top of a team that is playing the best basketball in the league over the last few weeks.

Advanced stats care of spatialjam.com