Casey’s Preview: Wellington Vs Franklin

Photo credit: Masanori Udagawa/Photo Wellington

The Mills Albert Wellington Saints welcome the Franklin Bulls back to the capital, who when last invited to town took out an overtime win in a game that saw both teams reaching double digit leads in the proceedings. This looks to be a matchup where both teams would think that if they play to their gameplan they will move on with a win but which one is right?

The visiting Bulls come into the Final 6 off their best win of the year, marching into Cowles stadium and leaving with a 3 point lead and a building confidence against the best teams in the league. They chased down an Izayah Le’afa-less Saints squad to eventually succumb by two points int their first matchup before returning the favour on the return trip to Wellington. They were able to hit 9 threes that game, their 4th highest total on the year an important factor for a team that reached a league low 26% three point rate. The Return of Ethan Rusbatch helps that, as he and Isaac Davidson have led the way to season high’s in 3-pointers made in their last two games of the season. This is still an offense that breathes through Luther Muhammad as the league leading scorers efforts are tied to his teams fortunes. Josh Scott averaged 18.5ppg against the Saints (5.5ppg over his season average) but it is his value on defense that be his most valued contribution. Sam Timmins hit 13 of 18 shots from the field against the Saints this year but it is also his defense which can have the biggest impact on the game. But all defenders will need to do it with out fouling which has proven difficult with their league worst opponents free throw rate of 33%. Lee Skinner has gone under the radar but in their win over the Saints had 24 points, 14 rebounds and 2 steals, and his work will be more important this time around as he’ll be matched up on Hyrum Harris.

The Saints will be looking forward to facing the Bulls with a full roster for the first time this year and will look to lean on the added depth that will provide them. Ben Ayre and Le’afa make a formidable two-way backcourt that will be able to push the pace at all times. They still bomb away more then any team and with a 48% three point rate to drop 12.75 threes per game, the Bulls average half that many makes. Hot hooting from Terry Henderson Jr. (double figures and at least 2 3pfg every game) and Tohi Smith Milner could have the Saints dwarfing that total, with Tohi’s threes important tools to pull Timmins away from the basket. If there is space available to drive look for Hyrum Harris and Taane Samuel and when you add the power game of Malik Benlevi the rotational depth starts to add up and you can envision how Wellington will attack the paint with vigor to get the Bulls on their heels.

Stats Amazing!

-Bulls opponents have the second highest 3point rate in the league this season

-Bulls foul send opponents to the line more than any other team with a 33% free throw rate and the Saints have a league best 33% free throw rate

-Bulls are second in the league in block rate (9%) behind Sam Timmins 1.7 blocks per game and the Saints shot 65% at the rim during the season

-Bull are first in steals per game (8.6 per game) and the Saints average 12.6 turnovers per game (4th most)

-Bulls are third in defensive (76%) and offensive rebound percentage (31%)

-Saints are first in the league in assists (21.2 per game) and assist percentage (61%)

-Saints shoot 24.5 free throws per game (most in the league) and the Bulls foul 20.6 times per game (most in the league)

Key Matchup –

Izayah Le’afa Vs Luther Muhammad – Muhammad is the key to the Bulls offense (league leading 25.7 points per game, 4.1 assists) but does it on less than one made three pointer per game. Le’afa can match him offensively (22.8ppg, 6apg) but the job he can do slowing down his opponent will go further towards taking the win.

Who can step up to make a difference-

Someone from the Bulls has to lift the team from deep to get the Bulls over the top, look for that to come from Rusbatch, Davidson or Skinner. If one of them doesn’t have a banner day from deep it will be tough to match the Saints scoring.

Tohi Smith-Milner can have big days shooting and if he gets hot in this one it changes the way that the Bulls can defend the court making things much easier for his Saints teamates to get to the cup

Prediction- Saints by 6. The Bulls could easily end up the victors but a physical battle will come down to depth and the Saints have the advantage there and when shooting the 3.