Casey’s Preview: Canterbury Vs Taranaki

Photo credit: GameFace NZ

The Rams were able to pull two wins from two meetings against the Taranaki Airs including the most recent matchup that was out of reach by halftime and an earlier come from behind victory on their home floor where they were down 5 points with under 5 minutes to play. The visiting Airs will look and play differently without Sam Froling in the middle but even without their big man they are a formidable foe that was the weapons to put points on the board in the hurry. The Rams will be well motivated coming off a home loss that snapped a 16 game win streak and would be a stark reminder of their vulnerabilities.

The Rams will come into the game well rested and hopeful for the full strength return of K.J. Buffen (questionable with an ankle injury) and his perimeter prowess but his season average of 5pts and 3.5rbs against the Airs is unlikely to be the difference. The post presence of Lachlan Olbrich (20.1ppg, 11.9rbpg) will give a decided advantage to the Rams on the block, especially when they also feature the second most powerful post player in the matchup in Max Darling (9.3ppg, 4.7rbpg). Both will prove tenacious on the glass while giving the Rams the option to roll the ball down into the block and attack the low post 1v1. Some of their depth in this are is tempered with the loss of Aidan Tonge (away with U23 3×3 team) but his presence was more a luxury than anything else. On the perimeter Taylor Britt has performed to the best level of his career, reaching double figures in all but 3 games (with 56%fg, 40%3pfg shooting splits) and featuring a 3.3 assist to turnover ratio. One of those 3 games under double figures was the loss that snapped the 16 game winning streak and Britt was held to 3-11 from the floor while committing 4 turnovers. Walter Brown is as good a defender as there is in the league and has reached double figures in 5 of the last 7 games. M.J. Walker is a wildcard whose shooting stretches the defense but if slept on can take over a game (see his 41 point outburst vs the Tuatara). In all this is a balanced team that will not beat themselves and poses few obvious weaknesses.

The Airs seem to be getting more comfortable with life without Froling as they’ve moved to a more mobile lineup. Quintin Bailey is the defacto centre but this is now a big by committee team with Carlin Davision and Elijah Minnie providing the length on the interior while big guards Mitch McCarron and the Cameron Brothers (Tobias and Flynn) chip in on the collective rebound effort. Lacking the personnel to guard Olbrich with a single defender in the post look for rotating defensive looks to feature with double teams and a rangy zone defense coming into play at times. The rebounding efforts of the guards will have to lift from the levels displayed against Nelson in the first postseason game. The Airs have been second in free throw rate (33%) and offensive rebound rate (32%) this season and if they can continue those efforts without Froling they will bend the game in their favour, but it will be a tougher task against the size of the Rams. While they may be a bit outsized in the post the length and strength of the perimeter crew could pose a problem for their Rams counterparts. But this is a unit that looks to play best at speed but the question will that pace be up to the task against a Rams squad that is more than comfortable when pushing the pace. Carlin Davision has stepped up as the most important player in the Airs lineup in Froling’s absence. He topped 20 points 4 times in the last five regular season games and a double double from him will be a necessity to give the Airs a chance.

Stats Amazing:

-In their loss to the Bulls the Rams shot just 12-22 ( a season low 54%) from the free throw line while turning the ball over 15 times (2nd highest total of season)

-In all 3 losses this season the Rams grabbed 10 offensive rebounds or less, including a season low 6 vs the Tuatara

-The Rams have only had less than 12 assists once this year, in the loss to the Bulls

-The Rams are 4th in effective field goal percentage at 58%, the Airs just behind in 5th also at 58%

-The Rams have the second lowest turnover rate in the league (11%), the Airs are 7th @ 13%

-The Airs are 1st in block rate @8%, the Rams last @5%

-The Airs have the 2nd best free throw rate (33%) while the Rams send opponents to the line the 3rd least of any team at a 25% free throw rate

-The Rams have the best offensive and defensive rebound rate in the league at 33% and 79% respectively

-The Airs are 6th in defensive rebound rate (72%) and 2nd in offensive rebound rate (32%)

-The Rams are 2nd in points per game (97.2ppg) and 2nd in points per game allowed (82.8) for a league best scoring margin of +14.4

-The Airs are 4th in points per game (94.2ppg) and 3rd in points per game allowed (84.28) for a the 3rd best scoring margin of +10

-The Airs lead the league in free throw percentage (76%) and the Rams are 5th (73%)

-The Rams have a league best +8 rebounding margin the Airs are 3rd at +4.85

Matchup to Watch-

Taylor Britt v Mitch McCarron- The Bulls showed that containing Britt is the key to slowing down the Rams and while that is more easily said then done McCarron has the size and skillset to do so individually. McCarron’s stats (9.3ppg, 7.1apg, 4.9rpg, 28%3pfg) don’t jump off the page but his role in keeping the offense on track is vital for the Airs. If either teams point guard is let off the leash his team will enjoy a big advantage.

Game Changers-

Max Darling – While Olbrich will get the bulk of attention the presence of Darling as a secondary big will be tough for the Airs to match up with. if they sleep on him even slightly he will carve up space on the o-board while offering scoring punch in the pick and roll and on the block

Tobias Cameron- In the closer of the two games this season T. Cameron grabbed a double double (16 points, 10 rebounds) while hitting a three late that pushed the Airs into the lead late. If he can get loose from deep his shooting could prove an equaliser.

Prediction- Rams by 8

The Airs will prove a tough team to keep down, but the Rams are maybe the most complete team in the league. Lachlan Olbrich will be the biggest player on the court and should prove to be a matchup nightmare that the Airs will struggle to contain and should eventually give the Rams the upper hand.