Casey’s Grand Final Preview – Canterbury Vs Auckland

Photo credit: GameFace NZ

The stage is set for the two teams that have proven themselves the strongest throughout the regular season will meet in the Grand Final for the second year in a row. Not only did the Canterbury Rams and Auckland Tuatara finish with the best records over the course of the year but they also ran off the longest winning streaks in the league this year, 16 games straight for the Rams that began after losing to the Tuatara and 1o straight for the Auckland that ended with a loss to Canterbury. The questions remains, what will the rematch of last years championship deliver to us in 2024?

Wheeler Motor Company Canterbury Rams (17-3) vs Auckland Tuatara (16-4)

Split season series 1-1

April 14th Canterbury Rams 99 Auckland Tuatara 111

The first matchup of the year was close going into the 2nd quarter, that’s when Corey Webster and Rob Loe ignited the flame throwers and burnt down Cowles stadium. Webster dropping 17pts and Loe 14 as the the Tuatara amassed 47 points in the 2nd quarter to essentially claim victory. No Cam Gliddon, Braydon Iuli or Charlie Dalton for the Tuatara, allowing plenty of work for Tom Vodanovich, Reuben Te Rangi, Webster and Loe as those 4 combined for 100 points. No Olbrich for the Rams and K.J. Buffen was yet to arrive but M.J. Walker did drop 41 during the chase.

June 9th Auckland Tuatara 83 Canterbury Rams 86

A much closer affair as back and forth first quarter eventually saw the Tuatara take a 9 point lead into the half. The Rams tightening things up with a collective effort in the second half, with Taylor Britt hitting big jumpers to reach a season high 25 and seal the victory late. It was Loe’s (7pts) lowest scoring game of the year as the Rams controlled the glass 49-35 while holding Auckland to 7 offensive rebounds.

Their Road to the Final 6

Wheeler Motor Company Canterbury Rams 112 Taranaki Steelformers Airs 111-

The most epic game we could ask for as the Airs pushed the Rams to the absolute brink in a 50 minute double OT thriller. Elijah Minne (26pts, 8rbs), Flynn Cameron (25pts, 5ast) and Carlin Davison(22pts, 13rbs) had something to say but Lachlan Olbrich had the last word (22pts, 16rbs). Six players hit double figures with Max Darling, Britt and Walker each topping twenty.

Auckland Tuatara 78 Franklin Bulls 75

The Tuatara Jumped out of the gates before a lack of offensive prowess came over the team in the half court. Down 10 going into the 4th quarter C Web and the Tuatara came alive, Webster leading the way with 11pts and 1ast.Most impressive may have been the smothering defense on Luther Muhammad that forced him into his least efficient and lowest scoring game of the year (10pts on 27% shooting). Loe (20pts, 5rbs, 6ast, 2stls) lost the stats battle to Sam Timmins (30pts, 8rbs, 1blk, 1ast) but with the help of Te Rangi’s (17pts, 5rbs) Auckland won the war.

Tuatara Overview

Auckland has been the best or second best team all season long, but has has this exact lineup for a very limited number of games. Corey Webster (20.65pts, 7.65asts) has been in good form all season long, but has a particular axe to grind with a selection committee that left him out of the Awards announcements despite finishing 8th in scoring and 1st in assists. A motivated Webster will be a problem as his skill when needing a bucket in a tight game is on par with any player who has ever graced the league. Rob Loe comes in after another dominating campaign and will be the foundation defensively and on the glass while his varied skill set can carry a heavy scoring load on all three levels or become the focus of initiation and facilitating the offense. Reuben Te Rangi hasn’t been at peak efficiency while finding his place in the half-court offense but his play against the Bulls showed how he can dominate and impose his will on the game physically. Cam Gliddon has been a consistent piece all season long, and was on a hot streak coming into the finals with 5 made 3’s in back to back games, was still able to impact winning against the Bulls despite an 0-7 day from deep. Tom Vodanovich looked a bit rusty in the semi-final after a month away with the Tall Blacks and family obligations, but his physicality and deep shooting will make him a tough cover while his rebounding and switchability on defense is vital to slowing down the opposition. Off the bench the most usage is likely to go to Iuli and Dalton who have been consistent with good play even as both players continue to adjust to lower work loads and minutes opportunities with a full contingent of players. The Tuatara do go deeper with players who could be trusted Nick Barrow, Tu Kaha Cooper and Reuben Fitzgerald but that glass will likely only get broken open in an emergency.

Rams Overview

A slow start due to roster availability gave way to an unbelievable amount of momentum as the Rams rolled out 16 straight wins following an 1-2 start as the Rams took the mantle of defending champions with pride. Lachlan Olbrich (20.06pts, 11.9rbs) played a dominant regular season where his effect was felt on both sides of the court. His blend of size and agility has been to much for the majority of the league to handle on a night to night basis. Dominant on the glass his ability to grab the board and go can help spark an offense when it occasionally gets bogged down. Taylor Britt enjoyed the best professional season of his career while grabbing a slew of awards for himself in the process. Always solid defensively he lifted his offensive game with more aggressive shot taking and a willingness to shoot from three and mid-range with more frequency. Walter Brown may be the most important defender on the team, his speed and quickness combining with great length to make scoring on the perimeter difficult for any opponent, and his offense is enjoying a solid stretch coming off a season high 18 (with 4 triples) in the semi. Max Darling has been an invaluable piece especially moving from the bench to the starting lineup while lifting more of a load offensively. M.J. Walker has been a bit up and down but given enough touches he’ll have his eye in and can catch fire with the slightest of opportunities. Kaia Isaac has taken a bigger piece of the minutes pie as the season has gone along and seems to have the trust of Head Coach Judd Flavell to play the game as he sees fit, evidenced by hitting double figures 4 times in the last 5 games. K.J. Buffen has been out of the rotation for a considerable amount of time, but if he does take the court his shooting ability will stretch the defense even if not up to full speed. Taki Fahrensohn has struggled to find his rhythm with his group consistently but is still the only other player likely to see big minutes for the Rams.

Key Matchups

Taylor Britt v Corey Webster – They won a title a season ago playing in the same backcourt but this time around they’ll have to go through each other. Britts ability to slow down Webster will be tested but he has the speed to stay in front and should be able to stand up when Corey tries to out physical him closer to the rim. Britt will need to test Webster on the other end of the court as well. Winning this matchup goes a long way towards winning the game

Lachlan Olbrich v Rob Loe – This year’s MVP vs. last year’s MVP. Two multiskilled bigs who are integral to their teams results. They’ve only tested each other the single time this season and the match up kept both from performing their best. If one of the two big fellas can get the upper hand it will be crucial to their teams chances.

Max Darling v Tommy Vodanovich- The matchup at the power forward position will be key to control the glass and win the possession game. Darling has found double figures in 4 of the last 5 games but finding double figure rebounds for the second game in a row will probably be of more help. Vodanovich would normally get the nod in this crossmatch but will need to knock off a bit more rust to make sure it comes in his favour.

Walter Brown v Reuben Te Rangi- Two players who can bend matchups in their favour on the defensive end but with some sharp shooting can press their thumbs on the scale of the offensive end as well. Likely to be matched up elsewhere defensively the swingmen will need to carry out those assignments to slow down the opposition

Wild Cards- Will K.J. Buffen be healthy enough to contribute? Will Cam Gliddon have a bounce back game from 3? Will Kaia Isaac find some space and announce his arrival on the big stage? Will Iuli and Dalton find their late season form and be able to affect the offense in transition and the half court?

Stats Amazing

The Numbers –

Stat | Canterbury | Auckland
Effective field Goal Percentage | 54% 4th in league | 55% 3rd in league
Turnover rate | 11% 2nd | 13% 4th
Assist rate | 51% 5th | 57% 2nd
Block rate | 5% last | 5% 10th
Free throw rate | 29% 4th | 28% 5th
3-point rate | 38% 4th | 40% 3rd
Defensive rebound rate | 79% 1st | 77% 2nd

Offensive rebound rate | 33% 1st | 24% 9th

-Auckland outscored the Rams by 32 points (77-45) in the 2nd quarter of their games this year but were outscored by 23 (117-140) in the other quarters combined

-The Tuatara’s 2nd quarter against the Rams in the teams first matchup was the highest scoring quarter by any team this season (47 points)

-The Rams average 9.65 3-pointers made per game in the regular season, the Tuatara hit 10.35

-Auckland had their highest 3-pointers made (18) against the Rams

-The Tuatara had their second highest (111) and 3rd lowest (83)points totals of the season against the Rams

My Prediction – Coming into the Finals I thought the Rams looked like the best team at full strength but this Tuatara team seems an improvement on squads that went to the championship game the past two years in a row. I’m going with Rams by five, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the team I picked to win the last two title games make it third time the charm to prove me wrong once again.

Advanced Stats c/o spatialjam.com