Posted on Saturday, July 10th, 2021
Who Will Make The Final 4? Check Out All The Crazy Scenarios!
A comprehensive win by the SIT Zero Fees Southland Sharks over the Go Media Otago Nuggets has hepled the southerners lock in a spot at the Sal's NBL Final 4, while the Wellington Saints will also be there, but as to the final position for both teams .... that still remains a mystery.
With the Nuggets suffering a shark attack last night, the magic number of wins (if avoiding mini-ladders) needed to definately lock-in a Final 4 ticket this year is 12 - the Sharks and Saints have done that.
That said, the Hawks (11 wins) have also done enough even if a mini-ladder between them and the Huskies and Nuggets somehow eventuates. If that happens they would still get through, though it would be behind the Huskies.
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Believe it or not, the Rams (6th) do have a faint outside chance of climbing to 4th if they can earn 10 wins with victories against the Giants, Sharks and Nuggets.
If the Rams win all three, the Huskies lose both of their remaining games and Nuggets win no more than one of their remaining two games, Mick Downer's team could still make it in a wild three-team mini-ladder, but it would take a 25-point win in their R12 clash with the Nuggets.
If the Huskies can beat either the Airs or Saints they will effectively close the door to the top four, it will then just be a case of who finishes where amongst the Saints, Sharks, Hawks and Huskies.
So the battle for the Final 4 remains alive, and even the sixth-placed Rams can still make it.
Here's a look at how things can still play out.
WELLINGTON SAINTS (12-2)
@ Jets / vs Nuggets / @ Bulls / @ Huskies
- Cannot miss the Final 4.
- Two more wins will ensure they get top spot.
- If they don't win any of their remaining four games they could drop to as low as 4th place.
SOUTHLAND SHARKS (12-5)
- Cannot miss the Final 4.
- Their final position depends on a number of results.
TAYLOR HAWKE'S BAY HAWKS (11-5)
vs Airs / vs Jets
- Even with 11 wins they look safe given they have a far superior for/against differential over the Nuggets should the Hawks, Huskies and Nuggets all finish on 11 wins each.
- Two home games to come against the competition's lowest two teams.
- If they lost both games and the Nuggets won their two remaining games, which puts both the Hawks and Nuggets at 11 wins, the Hawks will get through on head-to-head.
- If the Hawks lost both games (finishing with 11 wins) and both the Huskies and Nuggets get to 11 wins, the Hawks will still get through as they sit 2nd on a mini-ladder with the Huskies (1st) and Nuggets (3rd).
SKY TOWER AUCKLAND HUSKIES (10-6)
vs Airs / vs Saints
- One win will secure the Huskies a Final 4 berth.
- If the Huskies win one game and the Nuggets win both of their remaining games, they will both finish on 11 wins, but the Huskies have head-to-head.
- If they lose both games to end with 10 wins and the Nuggets lose their remaining two games (finish with 9 wins), but the Rams win all three of their games (finish with 10 wins), the Huskies will lose out on head-to-head with the Rams.
GO MEDIA OTAGO NUGGETS (9-7)
@ Saints / vs Rams
- Must win both games to have a chance at making the Final 4, one win will not be enough given the Huskies already have 10 wins and have head-to-head on the Nuggets.
- If the Nuggets win both remaining games and the Huskies lose both, the Nuggets will make the Final 4.
- If the Nuggets win one remaining game, the Huskies lose both of their games and the Rams win all three of their remaining games, the trio will be locked on 10 wins each. If this happens the Rams would need to beat the Nuggets in R12 by 25-points or more, leaving them with a 2-2 record on a mini-ladder between the three teams, the same record as the Huskies, but with a +17pts for/against record as opposed to the Huskies on +16pts.
WHEELER MOTOR COMPANY CANTERBURY RAMS (7-8)
vs Giants / @ Sharks / @ Nuggets
- If the Huskies win one of their remianing games or the Nuggets win two of their remaining games the Rams will miss out on the Final 4, even if they win all of their three remaining games.
- The Rams must win all three of their remaining games and rely on the Huskies losing both of their games, and the Nuggets losing all of their remaining three games. The Rams and Huskies would finish on 10 wins each, and the Rams have head-to-head on the Huskies.
- The Rams can also get in if they win all three of their remaining games, the Huskies lose both of their games and the Nuggets win no more than one of their games, which would leave all three teams on 10 wins each and force a mini-ladder. In this scenario the Rams would need to beat the Nuggets in R12 by 25 points or more to get past the Huskies. The mini-ladder between the three teams currently looks like this:
Huskies | 2 wins & 2 losses | 325pts for - 309pts against | +16pts differential
Nuggets | 2 wins & 1 loss | 238pts for - 246pts against | -8pts differential
Rams | 1 win & 2 losses | 248pts for - 256pts against | -8pts differential