Photo credit: Jordan Riddick
The Airs take the court for a home final for the first time that I can remember and will be confident in their chances on the home court once again, but this Giants team will look a bit different than the one that went down by 16.
The Giants will hope that staying in New Plymouth and the addition of Kobe Langley to the line up will lift the team to victory. Dan Fotu should find advantage on the interior as will Dan Grida on the drives, but the key to the Giants offense will be their ability to hit three's as the 2nd lowest three point rate in the league (32%) makes the least (6.5 per game) at the lowest percentage (28%). Without a true centre they will need to play small and fast while keeping the Airs second chance opportunities limited. Behind Langley's 2.65 steals per game (2nd in the league) the Giants lead the league in steal percentage (9%) so they do have the ability to make things tough for the Airs. Alex McNaught contributes to that, and of late, has also contributed scoring (season high points in 2 of last 3 outings) which will be needed to keep pace with Taranaki. Sam Dempster would like to see his current cold streak (4-21 3pfg last 3 games) turn around and it may have to for the Giants to find victory.
The loss of Sam Froling to NBA Summer league would be tougher to make up for against every other opponent in the post season, but against a similarly affected Giants squad it should have less of an impact. In the big fellas absence Carlin Davison has shone, scoring over 20 points and grabbing at least 8 boards 5 times in the last 7 games. Mitch McCarron's return to the lineup is timely, as his size and playmaking at the guard position will be difficult for the Giants to contend with especially when paired with another big guard in Flynn Cameron. The Giants aren't deep so the Airs should benefit from their league 2nd best 33% free throw rate, but with a bulk of that number based on the play of the departed Froling (6.2 free throws attempted per game) the question is who will find the contact now? It could be Elijah Minnie who can get it going (season high 30pts) but can also get lost in the mix (season low 2), but when aggressive he can find his way to the foul line. Off the bench Tobias Cameron's physicality will pair nicely with the speed of Derone Raukawa, who was able to find a season high against the Giants in their most recent meeting. Quintin Bailey will be patrolling the middle, and the Airs lack of other sizable options makes his play, and ability to stay out of foul trouble, key to his teams fortunes.
- Last match up the Airs made a season high 17 3pointers (17-38 3pfg at 44%), the Giants went 5-20 (25%)
-In their first matchup of the season the Giants hit a season high 14 threes at a season high 50% for the game
- The Airs are 2nd in offensive rebound percentage (32%), The Giants are 10th in defensive rebound percentage (71%)
-The Airs have had their seasons 2 highest assist games this year against the Giants (28 and 27)
Carlin Davison v Dan Fotu - These two will be a clash of styles with the bruising Fotu looking for opportunities in the block and rip throughs from the elbow while Davison looks to cut through the defense from the week side while playing above the rim. The difference in this match up might be who finds a little bit of form from deep.
Prediction - Airs by 7- The Giants should will make a game effort but in the end the Airs greater size at essentially every position will grind the Giants down to size
