After 3 consecutive post-season appearances (and 1 Championship) the Nuggets missed were on the outside looking in at finals basketball for the first time since the 2020 season. An offseason of change has seen a new head coach, a search for new ownership and a revamp of the roster but will all the changes have Otago found a new vein of success or will it run dry once again?
2024 Position: 9th place finish with a 7-13 record
Head Coach: Mike Kelly (1st season)
Departed: Coach Brent Matehaere, Ben Henshall (import), Kimani Lawrence(import), Zaccheus Darko-Kelly(import), Dontae Russo-Nance(Jets), Jack Andrew(Airs), Robbie Coman (Australia), Tai Webster
Incoming: Jono Janssen, Mac Stodart (Rams), Christian Martin (Bulls) Jose Perez (import), 2 restricted players to be named
Predicted Starting Lineup: Jose Perez (import), Matthew Bardsley Jono Janssen, Two imports (TBD),
X-Factor: Matthew Bardsley
Watch For: Jono Janssen
Wanted Headline: Nuggets Strike Gold!!
Unwanted Headline: Nuggets Dig Themselves Into Deep Hole
Straight Shot
A season marked by inconsistency saw a hot Night ‘n Day Otago Nuggets start fade away down the stretch to finish just one win shy of being in the mix for the Final 6 after a torrid start as player injury and unavailability took its toll as the season rolled along. The squad went from top of the table to the outside looking in and a team in flux off the court (as it was recently revealed current owners SEN will be departing after this season) went into rebuild mode on it as well, saying goodbye to Coach Brent Matehaere, who coached the Nuggets to their only 2 titles in league history, would be moved on in the hopes of finding greater consistency on the court than has been displayed since their last historic title run.
But despite the historic titles this was a team that struggled down the stretch of games and when playing at full strength saw the ball stick and get turned over at far too high a rate (15% turnover rate 2nd worst in NBL) despite their high level of talent. The good news is most of a local core has returned on the wing with Matthew 'The Slippery Eel' Bardsley, Darcy Knox and Josh Aitcheson sure to be depended on for minutes if not starting roles. The interior is a different story, with the Nugs unable to hold onto their starting local big man for the second year in a row (Sam Timmins in '23 and Jack Andrew heading north to Taranaki's pastures) there are question marks about how they will handle paint attacks through the season. Jono Janssen is a solid pick up to help in this space, as his strong play inside will help carry the load but yet to be named import (or imports) will need to come in and do the heavy lifting alongside whatever minutes new recruit Mac Stodart is able to claim.
Jose Perez is a nice first import signing, as the rookie 6'6" wing comes into his professional career having hit double figure scoring in 4 out of 5 college seasons while hitting over 40% of threes as a 6th year senior. That scoring ability will be paramount for a team that finished in the bottom half of the league in scoring a year ago, but will need to be buoyed, either by the still to be named imports, or possibly a lift from the local core.
New Coach Mike Kelly comes into the squad with a difficult job to do, having to navigate the off court distraction of a team for sale while also securing a new pipeline for talent after losing what had been a valuable connection with Perth Wildcats. Coach Kelly comes with Australian NBL credentials as a tough minded coach defensively but the bulk of his work looks to be coming on the offensive end, where it will take some scheming to get this unit to keep pace with some of the leagues top scoring outfits. But Mike Kelly has tackled similar rebuild projects before and found success (with notable finals qualifications with understrength and underfunded Cairns Taipans teams) so this project is one that should seem somewhat familiar.
Look for the Nuggets squad to take a no nonsense attitude and be locked in defensively, which should be enough to keep them close in most games. But a higher level of success this season will need to be built on the offensive end and that will be a work in progress until we see the full lineup take shape.
If the final imported pieces can fill the empty holes down low and in the scoring ledger this Nuggets squad could find itself in the mix for 6 to take a crack at the postseason but it will take a slew of good fortune and a considerable lift in the offensive prowess of the roster in its current form to make a post-season run a reality.
What Our Experts Say
Casey Frank: The Nuggets look to reload while changing strategies, moving away from a partnership that funneled players and coaches from the Perth Wildcats system that helped secure the only 2 titles in team history. But when its done, its done, and the Nuggets rarely looked like a team that was enjoying the plying of its trade last year. Off court distractions around ownership will be difficult to ignore, but the Nugs have a veteran local core they know can produce alongside new Coach Mike Kelly who they hope can bring in a fresh feel to shoot some joy and exuberance back into the gameplay on a more consistent basis. Still incomplete much will depend on the quality of the 2 imports who remain to be signed but this is a team that can trust 8-9 players in the rotation offering better depth than a season ago. The defensive scheme should be solid but it looks to be an arm wrestle offensively with the current lineup and if the scoring can't rise above expectations it will be a challenge for the Nuggets to maintain a position in the top 6.
Justin Nelson: It’s been a rough pre-season for the Nuggets, and it didn’t get any easier in recent days when Australian owners (SEN) announced their ownership will cease at season’s end. This will be an unwanted distraction, and with that on their minds, and with new coach Mike Kelly joining the operation, this is a team likely to carry the underdog tag from start to finish, and I quite like that. Though most of the local Dunedin contingent has returned - except Robbie Coman - unfortunately the Kiwi level looks to have dropped substantially with Jack Andrew, Tai Webster and Dontae Russo-Nance all playing elsewhere. How Coach Kelly assembles his roster will be crucial, but I think the Nuggets will be a team that relies more than any other on their three imports. It’s hard to see the Nuggets making the playoffs, a lot will need to go right and the trio of imports will need to be some of the best in the league, and hopefully the good times start with a new owner emerging sooner rather than later. However for me, the Nuggets are likely to finish towards the lower end of the ladder (though I remind myself that I tipped the Nuggets to miss the playoffs in 2022 … when they won the championship).
