Mills Albert Wellington Saints(10-4, 2nd) v Night 'n Day Otago Nuggets (2-11, 11th)
The Saints are sitting comfortably in second place on the ladder, but recent offensive inconsistency means they can't afford to ease up with teams breathing down their neck. The Nuggets have shown grit despite their record and are desperate to break a nine-game losing streak. Will the Saints protect home court, or can Otago finally snatch a long-awaited win?
When: Saturday 31st May, Rapid League 3pm, Sal's NBL 4pm
Where: Te Rauparaha Arena, Porirua
Watch: Live in New Zealand on Sky Sport 4 | USA: ESPN3 | International: FIBA YouTube |
Last Time Out:
The Saints bounced back in style, grinding out a 90-83 road win over the Tuatara. Nick Marshall led the way with 25 points and 11 rebounds, setting the tone early as the Saints looked to rebound from a poor offensive showing in Tauranga. Despite a second-quarter burst from Buay Tuach and a five-point halftime deficit, Wellington tightened up defensively, holding Auckland to just 32 points after the break. A 7-0 third-quarter run swung the momentum, and the Saints kept their composure late to seal the win. All ten starters hit double digits, but Wellington’s defensive edge and poise proved decisive.
In Dunedin, the Nuggets came out firing in hopes of ending their skid, facing a Hawks side missing key big Darnell Cowart. Jono Janssen (33 pts, 11 rebs) and Jaylen Sebree (29 pts, 9 rebs) took full advantage of the size mismatch, combining for 62 points and helping Otago to a 17-point first-half lead. But the Hawks clawed back behind balanced scoring, with all five starters finishing with at least 18. Despite 13 more fourth-quarter points from Janssen, the Hawks’ late-game composure and defensive grit handed the Nuggets another tough loss, 98-92.
What to Expect:
The Saints look set to be without Shea Ili again and will need to be careful not to let the offense stagnate in his absence. To avoid that, they should aim to pick up the pace while still valuing possessions. Hyrum Harris will look to make an impact all over the floor, with his energy often shifting the momentum, especially when Izayah Le'afa is pressuring ball handlers at the point of attack for a stout defense. Nick Muszynski has become more impactful offensively in recent games, complementing his consistently solid defense, and he could pose problems for a defense that struggles to match his size. Nick Marshall has been scoring with ease in transition and continues to draw defensive attention in the half court. Jordan Ngatai is looking increasingly comfortable, and his versatility will create matchup problems — dragging bigs to the perimeter or taking smaller defenders down low.
The Nuggets continue to hit the court with just two restricted players but continue to come agonisingly close to picking up a win and ending their now 9 game skid. If they want to win the close one they'll need to find some from from the Chemist Warehouse stipe. They also need to continue to get solid work out of Jono Janssen (17.2ppg, 6.8rpg) and Jaylen Sebree (14.9ppg, 6.1rpg, 1.8stls), both coming off season highs and becoming more involved in the offense. Don Carey Jr (22.5ppg, 5.3rpg, 6.6apg) is still the focal point and his quick release from deep can keep the Nugs in the game against anyone. The defense will need to lift, especially in transition, making the contributions of the bench mob led by Matthew Bardsley, Caleb Smiler and Darcy Knox key on that end, a few extra buckets wouldn't hurt.
Matchup to Watch: Izayah Le'afa v Don Carey Jr -This battle of the backcourts could decide the outcome. Carey’s ability to create space and hit from deep gives Otago a fighting chance, while the Saints hit another level when Le'afa gets hot from the perimeter. Whichever guard controls the tempo may tip the balance in their squads favour.
Stats that Might Matter:
| Stat | Saints | Nuggets |
| Scoring Offense | 94.43 (4th) | 88.85 (7th) |
| Scoring Defense | 83.43 (2nd) | 97.92 (last) |
| Effective Field Goal % | 54% (3rd) | 51% (1st) |
| Field Goal % Defense | 40% (1st) | 50% (last) |
| Free Throw Rate | 27% (6th) | 28% (5th) |
| Free Throw % | 75% (3rd) | 67% (last) |
| Three Point Rate | 39% (7th) | 45% (1st) |
| Three Point % | 35% (2nd) | 34% (4th) |
| Turnover Rate | 12% (5th) | 12% (4th) |
| Assist Rate | 62% (2nd) | 58% (5th) |
| Offensive Rebound Rate | 24% (9th) | 25% (8th) |
| Defensive Rebound Rate | 77% (1st) | 72% (8th) |
| Block Rate | 12% (1st) | 5% (last) |
| Steal Rate | 9% (7th) | 10% (6th) |
all advanced stats courtesy of spatialjam.com
