The Sal's NBL season comes into round 16 with 10 of 11 teams still firmly in the finals chase and all with Realistic avenues of finding their way to Final 6. Teams that qualify fourth through six will take part in the eliminator finals to earn their way to the final four. The Rams and Saints have the top two seeds wrapped with just the seeding to be determined, and first place may just be on the line when they meet in the final round of the season. But that leaves 8 teams sitting between seven and 10 wins who will be eyeing the eliminator finals. What is each of these teams path to the post-season glory? Read below for my thoughts, and check out the Sal's NBL Ladder Predictor to forge your own path to the finals.
Road to the Eliminators
7 Win Teams (home opponents in CAPS, Points Percentage is first tie breaker after record)
Big Barrel Hawks (7-11, 92%, games v SAINTS, TUATARA)
The Hawks have two home games remaining and need to win them both to even have a chance to make the eliminator, and their current form of 5 straight losses (3 at home) doesn't bode well for a finals appearance. The Saints are playing with force and confidence of late and the final game of the year will likely be against a Tuatara squad that will most likely require the win realise their own post-season dreams. When coupled with the lowest points percentage of any team in contention and the continued absence of starting pg Jackson Ball (U19 World Cup) the Hawks have a difficult road in front of them.
Prediction: 7-13, 10th
NBS Nelson Giants (7-11 104%, games v TUATARA, SHARKS)
The Giants have won three in a row, have only home games remaining and the best points percentage of any team that is in the eliminator hunt which will give the squad hope that their miraculous in season turnaround isn't done just yet. But they don't control their own destiny and will need help from other teams in the hunt to sneak in the back door on 9 wins. Their games against the Tuatara and the Sharks will be an arm wrestle, but they are confident in the mud of late, but with key rotation pieces unavailable (U19 Word Cup) their margin for error is thinner then it has been all season (which is saying something)
Prediction: 9-11, 7th place
The Northern Group Tauranga Whai (7-10, 99%, games v Nuggets, Sharks, JETS)
The Whai are missing a starter with the U19 World Cup, and their head coach, and have an uphill battle facing the Southern Swing this round, They don't control their own destiny, but hold the 3rd highest points percentage of the eliminator hopefuls. Wins against the Sharks and Jets are necessary, but they can't afford to sleep on a feisty Nuggets team that is desperate to end their 13 game slide and have been close to just that in recent weeks. If they do take out the swing their fial game against the Jets on the final day of the regular season lurks as the last remaining piece of the playoff picture for a number of teams.
Prediction: 8-12, 8th
8 Win Teams
Logik Franklin Bulls (8-10, 97%, games v JETS, Rams)
Franklin found their winning ways in the battle of black and yellow, putting an end to their 7-game slide while giving us a glimpse of the team the Bulls envisioned when they put the club together. But did they leave their run too late? With their final game of the season against the Rams lining up as the most important of the year, they will have to dig deep to find a level of execution that hasn't been on display for most of their season. But before they can even worry about pulling off that upset that have a home game against the Jets that is just as important as the Jets eye the chance to secure a home eliminator.
Prediction: 9-11 9th
Jadcup Auckland Tuatara (8-9, 99%, games v Giants, JETS, Hawks)
The Tuatara looked to be on the up, but a 3-game winning streak has been replaced with a two-game slide that has the three-time runners-up against the ropes. They likely require two wins of their final three to secure a chance at the eliminator, but they need the trio if they have any dreams of playing on their home court. Their talent level is undeniable, but recent games have shown the margin for error is null. Their percentage is in the middle of the pack but if the take wins but they control their own destiny, which is all a team can ask for at this time of the season.
Prediction: 10-10, 6th
9 Win Teams
Property Broker Manawatū Jets (9-7, 98%, games v Bulls, Tuatara, Whai, NUGGETS)
The Nuggets looked a team that was starting to believe they could compete for a title as the full roster finally came together, but a devastating injury to Corey Webster may have tempered those hopes. Even without their leading scorer this is a talented team that can make some noise, but with 4 games remaining (the most of any team in the league) and three of those on the road they also have the most room for variance. Two wins will lock them into playoff position, but winning out will give them 3rd seed and a home eliminator. There is plenty of talent to finish strong, but every team play is likely to be desperate and they will need to be wary of overlooking a Nuggets squad that will relish the chance to play spoiler on the final day of the season.
Prediction: 11-9, 4th
10 Win Teams
Steelformers Taranaki Airs (10-8, 100%, games v Rams, NUGGETS)
Taranaki is looking for an offensive rhythm but their defense remains stout and they have as much size on the court as any team in the league. They have the inside track to a home eliminator thanks to their solid points percentage (2nd to the Giants of teams in the chase) but that will most likely depend on grabbing a win on the road against the two time defending champs. With their final game against Otago on the road they will like their chances to reach 11 wins which would guarantee a post season appearance.
Prediction: 11-9, 3rd
Southland Sharks (10-8, 94%, games v WHAI, Giants)
After a 1-5 start the Sharks looked as though their post season drought would continue but a four-game winning streak has them all but locked into their first finals appearance since 2021. Their points percentage isn't promising as the second lowest of any team in the eliminator hunt, but they control their own destiny as two wins would put them in the conversation for the third seed.
Prediction: 11-9, 5th
Worth a Mention
1-14 from Three?!? - Shout out to the Nelson Giants who grabbed a victory against the Airs despite hitting just once from long range at a 7% clip. Nothing like grinding out a victory!!
The Sharks and Caleb Asberry's 9/9/9 - Shout out to Caleb Asberry with the uncommon 9pts, 9rbs, 9ast stat line that threatened a triple double (technically threatened a quad-double with 7 turnovers, but I really shouldn't mention that) for a Sharks squad that looks like it wants to make some noise. As they should be with Boone offering a 7-11 scoring option (open 24/7) and the big boys Allick and Timmins up front!
Welcome Back Leon Henry!! - Leon can't give it up! Nice to see the veteran (with quite a bit left in the tank btw) join the Jets as they chase the postseason for the first time in a wee while
Corey Webster - On a sadder note, we say goodbye to Webster for the season, who ages like a fine wine and was looking as fresh as ever during his time with the Jets. The 36 year old dropped 23.7ppg to go along with 6.9apg and 4.7rpg and was primed for a post season push in front of the Green Army. The mid-range maestro still has an ageless jumper at his disposal and this year's league will be worse off without him down the stretch. Here's to one of the greats hope to see you out on that hardwood again young fella. Yeah, that's worth a mention.
