Mills Albert Wellington Saints (15-4, 1st) v Wheeler Motor Company Canterbury Rams (14-4, 2nd)
Top spot on the ladder, and the homecourt advantage that comes with it, is on the line as the Saints and Rams meet. Wellington are winners of six straight, a team that has found ways to grind out wins all season long. Canterbury, meanwhile, are experiencing their first losing streak of the season but know that one more win will take the road to the championship through the Cowles Cauldron again. It’s all on the line as two heavyweights open the final round of the season.
When: Tuesday 1st July, Rapid League 6pm, Sal's NBL 7pm
Where: TSB Stadium, Wellington
Watch: Live in New Zealand on Sky Sport 2 | USA: ESPN3 | International: FIBA YouTube |
Last Time Out:
The Saints travelled to play the Hawks and jumped out of the gate, riding balanced offense and stout defense to an early 10-point quarter-time lead. Nick Marshall (23pts, 7rbs, 4ast) and Izayah Le'afa (23pts, 8rbs, 5ast, 4stls) led the way offensively but were kept honest by the efforts of Campbell Scott (19pts, 4rbs, 4ast) and Brandon Alston (20pts, 4rbs, 5ast). The Saints’ defense held firm throughout, and with five starters in double figures, they had enough to hold the Hawks at bay and claim a 99-81 victory.
The Rams last took to Cowles Stadium hoping to get back to winning ways as they hosted the Airs, but were again without point guards Taylor Britt (concussion) and Tama Isaac. Both teams found their rhythm early in a back-and-forth opening quarter, with the Airs holding a slender one-point lead at the break. In the second quarter, the Airs' defense disrupted the Rams while their offense clicked efficiently to take a 51-39 halftime lead. In the second half, Sean MacDonald (27pts, 2rbs, 6ast) worked tirelessly, but his efforts were matched by Deng Dut (25pts, 4ast) and Craig Moller (27pts, 11rbs, 7ast, 1blk), who combined to shoot 14-19 from deep, Moller an incredible 81% on his 9 makes. That flamethrower effort proved too much, and despite rallying to within six, the Rams eventually fell 98-89.
What to Expect:
An entire season comes down to this: two teams that have dominated statistically and on the court meeting to see who claims the top seed and homecourt advantage in the Final 6. Both teams have question marks over key players, with Shaun Bruce (illness) and Taylor Britt both questionable, but either could significantly lift their side if available.
The Saints have thrived this year despite point guard turmoil, thanks in large part to the midseason addition of Jordan Ngatai and the offensive boost he provided. Ngatai, Marshall and Le'afa are all crucial for the offense to reach its peak, but their defensive impact is a constant. Nick Muszynski anchors the defense, altering shots around the paint, while Hyrum Harris is everywhere, taking tough defensive matchups and initiating offense. If Bruce remains sidelined, the Saints' rotation may tighten, relying on spot minutes from the bench to rest the core. The Saints don’t get to the line often, but do so at a slightly better rate than the Rams and can force trips when locked in. Defensive rebounding will be vital to contain the Rams’ relentless work on the glass, and pushing for a few more offensive rebounds could also pay dividends.
The Rams have shown balance all year — top in offense and stingy in defense, sitting in the top five across most major stats — but now find themselves on a rare losing streak. If Britt isn’t cleared, their offense can stagnate, though the talent remains. MacDonald leads the perimeter attack, supported inside by Kyle Bowen, Tohi Smith-Milner, Max Darling and C.J. Penha, each capable inside and a threat from outside. Walter Brown will be key at both ends, but his defensive assignment on Nick Marshall could have the biggest impact on the final outcome. The Rams’ low free throw rate and a rising three-point attempt rate (with declining accuracy) might hurt them in clutch moments, but overall, this remains a squad with very few weaknesses.
Matchup to Watch: Nick Marshall v Walter Brown - If both teams' point guards are available, that may prove decisive, but either way the swingmen’s battle will be crucial. Marshall is a dynamic scorer, speedy in transition and dangerous in the half court. Brown is opportunistic on offense and could look to assert himself more there, but his defensive presence can disrupt even elite scorers, and on his best nights he can completely stifle opponents.
Stats that Might Matter:
| Stat | Saints | Rams |
| Scoring Offense | 95.53 (2nd) | 99.11 (1st) |
| Scoring Defense | 83.58 (1st) | 84.56 (3rd) |
| Effective Field Goal % | 54% (3rd) | 54% (2nd) |
| Field Goal % Defense | 41% (1st) | 45% (4th) |
| Free Throw Rate | 27% (7th) | 25% (last) |
| Free Throw % | 75% (2nd) | 71% (6th) |
| Three Point Rate | 39% (8th) | 42% (4th) |
| Three Point % | 35% (2nd) | 34% (3rd) |
| Turnover Rate | 12% (4th) | 10% (1st) |
| Assist Rate | 25% (4th) | 60% (3rd) |
| Offensive Rebound Rate | 26% (7th) | 32% (1st) |
| Defensive Rebound Rate | 78% (1st) | 77% (2nd) |
| Block Rate | 12% (1st) | 9% (4th) |
| Steal Rate | 10% (4th) | 10% (2nd) |
all advanced stats courtesy of spatialjam.com
