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Posted on Thursday, July 3rd, 2025

Sal’s NBL 2025: Finals Frenzy!!!

NBL 2025: Finals Frenzy – Top Four Set, But 5th & 6th Spots Hinge on Every Point and Head-to-Head History!

As Round 16 of the NBL 2025 season hurtles towards its thrilling conclusion with just five games remaining, the battle for the coveted top six finals berths has reached an electrifying peak. Our latest 100,000 simulations, meticulously factoring in the updated standings and the remaining fixtures, paint a definitive picture of each team's playoff destiny. While the top four positions are unequivocally decided, the final two spots in the playoff bracket are set to be determined by the slimmest of margins, where every single point scored and conceded will be the ultimate tie-breaker, often decided by head-to-head matchups.

The Current Ladder

(Pre-Remaining Round 16 Games):

Position	Team	GP	W	L	%WON	FOR	AGST	%
1	Wellington Saints	20	16	4	80	2555	2297	111
2	Canterbury Rams	19	14	5	73	2615	2305	113
3	Taranaki Airs	19	11	8	57	2395	2390	100
4	Southland Sharks	19	11	8	57	2303	2424	95
5	Auckland Tuatara	19	9	10	47	2353	2371	99
6	Franklin Bulls	19	9	10	47	2291	2310	99
7	Manawatū Jets	19	9	10	47	2421	2533	95
8	Tauranga Whai	20	9	11	45	2351	2323	101
9	Nelson Giants	19	8	11	42	2407	2301	104
10	Hawkes Bay Hawks	19	7	12	36	2272	2479	91
11	Otago Nuggets	18	2	16	11	2136	2366	90

Remaining Round 16 Fixtures:

Nelson Giants vs Southland Sharks (Thursday)
Taranaki Airs vs Otago Nuggets (Friday)
Hawkes Bay Hawks vs Auckland Tuatara (Saturday)
Manawatū Jets vs Otago Nuggets (Sunday)
Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls (Sunday)

Finals Confirmed & Hosting Secured:

The top four teams have not only punched their tickets to the Finals but have also cemented their place in the upper echelon, guaranteeing them crucial home-court advantage in the early playoff rounds.

Mills Albert Wellington Saints: (1st Place Locked In, Home Semi-Final)

The Saints are absolutely unmovable from the top spot, a dominant performance securing them the coveted first seed. They will host a Semi-Final game with a 100% hosting probability.
Wheeler Motor Company Canterbury Rams: (2nd Place Locked In, Home Semi-Final)

Similarly, the Rams are locked into second place, setting them up for a direct path to the Semi-Finals with full hosting rights secured.
Steelformers Taranaki Airs 100%: (Eliminator Home Final Locked In)

The Airs are a guaranteed finalist and will secure a top-four position, meaning they will host an Eliminator Final. They have a 75.04% chance of finishing 3rd and a 24.96% chance of finishing 4th. Their final match against the Otago Nuggets, while unlikely to affect their finals berth, presents a crucial opportunity to boost their points percentage (currently 100%) and potentially secure the higher 3rd seed over the Sharks if both teams finish on equal wins. A large win here could be critical for seeding.
Southland Sharks 95%: (Eliminator Home Final Locked In)

Just like the Airs, the Sharks are secure in the Finals and will also host an Eliminator Final. Their probabilities of finishing 3rd (24.96%) and 4th (75.04%) indicate a strong likelihood of a fourth-place finish. Their game against the Nelson Giants will be key to improving their points percentage (currently 95%). A decisive win could significantly improve this ratio, which will be the decisive factor in any ties with the Taranaki Airs for 3rd and 4th seeding.

The Scramble for the Final Two Spots (5th & 6th):

Every Point and Head-to-Head Battle Counts!

This is where the drama truly unfolds. Five teams – Tuatara, Franklin Bulls, Jets, Whai and Giants, are locked in a desperate battle for the two remaining playoff berths. For most of these teams, not only do they need to secure a win, but the margin of victory or defeat will be the single most important factor in breaking ties and securing a playoff spot, based on the NBL's points percentage tie-breaker (all points scored FOR/AGAINST) and, if in the unlikely event that points percentages are exactly tied, head-to-head records as a final

Tie Breaker Rules When Teams are Tied On Wins

The Team with the higher points differential (as a percentage) will be awarded the higher place. The points differential will be calculated based on the points scored by each team in NBL and Rapid League games (added together) divided by the points conceded by each team in NBL and Rapid League games (added together). If the two Teams are still tied the following shall apply. If the two Teams are still tied the following shall apply;
The team with the best points differential (as a percentage) in games played only between the tied Teams, determined by the same method
If three or more Teams are tied on the same number of WINS The team with the best points differential (as a percentage) in games played only between the tied Teams, determined by the same method as above.
See end of article for further detail

The Scenarios

Jadcup Auckland Tuatara 99%: (Final 6 Probability: 52.85%) (v Big Barrel Hawks)

The Tuatara's hold the advantage ever so slightly in points percentage with a .0013% advantage, but despite that they sit just below the Bulls with a 52.85% chance of making the top six. Based on the simulations, their most likely outcomes are 5th (36.80%) or 6th (16.05%). Their clash with the Hawkes Bay Hawks is a must-win to stay in contention.
- Scenario Insight: As noted, Auckland is currently tied with Franklin on wins and just ahead on overall points percentage with a .0013% advantage. Their head-to-head record against the Bulls (100.87% vs. 99.14%) gives them a crucial advantage if they somehow finish tied. A commanding victory against the Hawks would significantly boost their overall points for/against ratio, potentially giving them an outright lead over Franklin and others on percentage, avoiding the need for head-to-head tie-breakers.
- Head-to-Head vs. Manawatū Jets: Auckland holds a dominant H2H points percentage of 117.39% against Manawatū (Manawatū's is 85.18%). If these two teams were to finish tied on wins and overall points percentage, Auckland would claim the higher spot.
- Head-to-Head vs. Tauranga Whai: Auckland also has a superior H2H points percentage of 115.81% against Tauranga (Tauranga's is 86.34%). If these two teams finish tied on wins and overall points percentage, Auckland would claim the higher spot.
- Head to Head v Nelson: H2H would likely not come into play as the Giants would hold a superior points percentage (104%) should they secure a win against Southland a win would keep them above the Tuatara percentage (99%)

Logik Franklin Bulls 99%: (Final 6 Probability: 53.46%, v Wheeler Motor Company Canterbury Rams)

The Bulls playoff hopes mirror the Tuatara, despite being down ever so slightly on percentage they still possess a slightly better than 50/50 chance of making the Finals, their game against the Canterbury Rams pivotal. The simulation says they hold the highest individual probability of finishing 5th (38.22%) among the contending pack, and a 15.24% chance for 6th
- Scenario Insight: The Bulls are currently tied with Auckland Tuatara on wins (9) but slightly behind on points percentage with a .0013% disadvantage.
  - Head-to-Head vs. Auckland Tuatara: Across their two matchups, Franklin Bulls scored 230 points and conceded 232 (a H2H percentage of 99.14%). Tuatara scored 232 points and conceded 230 (a H2H percentage of 100.87%).
  - Head-to-Head vs. Jets: The Bulls hold a dominant H2H points percentage of 119% against Manawatū (Jets is 83%)f these two teams were to finish tied on wins and overall points percentage, Franklin would claim the higher spot.
  - Head to Head v Nelson: Should they lose H2H would likely not come into play as the Giants would hold a superior points percentage (104%) should they secure a win against Southland a win would keep them above the Bulls percentage (99%)
  - Conclusion: If the Bulls and Tuatara finish exactly tied on wins and overall points percentage, Auckland Tuatara would claim the higher spot due to their superior head-to-head points percentage. This means the Bulls' best path is to finish with more wins than Auckland, or to significantly improve their overall points percentage beyond Auckland's. A large win against the Rams would be vital for this.
Property Brokers Manawatū Jets 95%: (Final 6 Probability: 37.63%, v Night 'n Day Otago Nuggets)

The Jets have one crucial game remaining against the Otago Nuggets. A win against the Nuggets would take them to 10 wins, putting them in direct contention with the Bulls and Tuatara should they win, and above what the Whai and Giants can reach. Their current overall points percentage of 95% is lower than the Tuatara, Bulls, Whai, and Giants, meaning they would likely lose a tie-breaker on overall percentage alone if they finished on the same number of wins.
- Scenario Insight: The Jets' clearest path is to secure a decisive win against the Nuggets. If they achieve a bonus-point win, they move to 10 wins. This would put them on equal wins with Auckland and Franklin if those teams also win their final games. The margin in their game would be vital for their final seeding (5th vs 6th) should they tie with other 10-win teams, as a huge points boost could dramatically improve their 95% ratio. However, given their lower overall percentage and head-to-head records against key rivals, they are heavily reliant on other teams stumbling.
- Head-to-Head vs. Franklin Bulls: Franklin holds a superior H2H points percentage of 111.86% against Manawatū (Manawatū's is 89.39%). If these two teams were to finish tied on wins and overall points percentage, Franklin would claim the higher spot.
- Head-to-Head vs. Tauranga Whai: These two teams are tied in head-to-head points percentage (both 100%). If they finish tied on wins, overall points percentage, AND head-to-head points percentage, the NBL rules would then necessitate a playoff game or a coin toss to determine the higher placing.
- Head to Head v Nelson: H2H would not come into play as the Giants would hold a superior points percentage (104%) should they secure a win against Southland a win would keep them above the Jets percentage (95%)
The Northern Group Tauranga Whai 101%: (Final 6 Probability: 31.09%)

The Whai are outsiders but still very much in the hunt. Their 31.09% chance of making the Finals according to the simulation, primarily aiming for 6th (24.86%), relies on favorable results elsewhere. Their current 101% overall points percentage is strong 9in a scenario with 9-win teams, but does not beat all teams.
- Scenario Insight: With their current 101% overall points percentage, if all the other contenders (Bulls, Tuatara, Jets, and Giants) stumble, they might just sneak in. If the 9-win teams to falter and Nelson stays at 8, that would allow the Whai to tie on wins and win the overall points percentage tie-breaker. Their strong percentage gives them an edge in any direct ties where head-to-head isn't applicable except against the Giants who with a win against the Sharks would hold the percentage advantage and thus the tiebreaker of all teams who end up on 9 wins.
- Head-to-Head vs. Franklin Bulls: Tauranga Whai holds a superior H2H points percentage of 102.79% against Franklin (Franklin's is 97.28%). If these two teams were to finish tied on wins and improbably on overall points percentage, Tauranga would claim the higher spot.
- Head-to-Head vs. Auckland Tuatara: Auckland holds a superior H2H points percentage of 115.81% against Tauranga (Tauranga's is 86.34%). If these two teams finish tied on wins and overall points percentage, Auckland would claim the higher spot.
- Head to Head v Nelson: H2H would not come into play as the Giants would hold a superior points percentage (104%) should they secure a win against Southland a win would keep them above the Whai percentage (101%)
NBS Nelson Giants: 104%(Final 6 Probability: 24.98%)

The Giants face an uphill battle. While they have a non-zero chance of making the playoffs (24.98%), their most probable finish is 9th (50.19%). They'll need a win against the Southland Sharks and a significant amount of luck from all the other results to sneak into that sixth spot (18.71% chance).
- Scenario Insight: For the Giants, it starts with a win against the Sharks. If they pull off the home win they and sit on 9 total and give themselves a chance. Their current 104% points percentage is impressive and would top all foreseeable tiebreaker scenarios should they end up in a tiebreaker, but their lower win count means they need some help. They would need a scenario where they win, AND multiple teams currently on 9 wins (Bulls, Tuatara, Jets) all lose their remaining games, and then the Giants' strong points percentage would see them win any resulting multi-team tie-breakers on teams sitting on 9 wins. The simulation sees this as a highly improbable chain of events but if the Giants win and two out of the Tuatara, Bulls and Jets lose then the Giants would have the best winning percentage of those teams sitting on 9 wins (including the Whai) and would qualify for the Final 6.

Out of Contention:

Sadly, for two teams, the dream of NBL 2025 Finals glory has ended.

Big Barrel Hawks: (Eliminated)

Despite their best efforts, the Hawks are mathematically out of the finals race, with our simulations showing a 100.00% probability of them finishing 10th.
Night 'n Day Otago Nuggets: (Eliminated)

The Nuggets' season will conclude after Round 16, with a 100.00% probability of finishing in 11th place.

The Rules:

NBL Finals System & The Rigours of Tie-Breaking

The top six teams will embark on a thrilling playoff journey:

Eliminator Finals: 3rd Seed vs. 6th Seed; 4th Seed vs. 5th Seed
Semi-Finals: 1st Seed vs. Lowest Seeded Eliminator Winner; 2nd Seed vs. Highest Seeded Eliminator Winner
Grand Final: Highest Seeded Semi-Final Winner vs. Lowest Seeded Semi-Final Winner

Hosting rights are paramount and are awarded to the higher-seeded team able to meet League and broadcast requirements. The confirmed hosting probabilities of the top four underscore their strong position to play at home.

Beyond simple wins and losses, the NBL's tie-breaking rules make every possession count. If teams are tied on the number of wins, the criteria are applied in the following sequence:

Higher Winning Percentage: For teams not playing the same number of games.
Higher Overall Points Differential (as a percentage): Calculated as (Points For / Points Conceded). This is where a team's offensive and defensive efficiency over the entire season (and critically, in their final games) becomes paramount.
Best Points Differential in Head-to-Head Games: This rule becomes critical for two-team ties that persist after overall points percentage (however unlikely), adding another layer of complexity that hinges on previous results between the tied teams. As seen above, these head-to-head percentages can be the ultimate decider for teams like Auckland and Franklin.
Playoff Game or Coin Toss: For any ties that remain unresolved, a dramatic playoff game or even a coin toss could be the final decider, as could be the case if the unlikely scenario teams are tied in all previous rules.

For three or more tied teams, Rule 6.3 in its entirety applies. This means that while simulations give us the general likelihood, the precise final ladder positions in very close scenarios might literally come down to a single basket, or the specific outcome of past matchups.

As Round 16 plays out, every basket and every result will be magnified, determining which teams will survive this brutal race and continue their quest for the NBL 2025 championship. The margins of victory, not just the wins themselves, but also the historical head-to-head battles, will define this season's Cinderella stories and heartbreaking finishes.