Photo credit: GameFace NZ
And here we are – 110 games down, 5 to go. A championship is up for grabs and half a dozen teams are left in the race. All are capable of winning, but there are certain things each team must get right, but also things that can’t get wrong. Sky Sport’s Justin Nelson explores the challenges ahead for all six teams with a Final 6 preview
What Must Go Right
The Rams must damage teams with their depth and their relentless pressure. As important as Lachie Olbrich and Taylor Britt are, so too are Kaia Isaac, Tama Isaac, Aidan Tonge and Taki Fahrensohn and the roles they play. MJ Walker (has averaged 19.5pts his last two games after a run of four games at 7.8pts) needs to bring his ‘A’ game and be a scoring threat, and KJ Buffen must rise above the discomfort of his ankle injury and play all the minutes Judd Flavell throws at him. Most importantly, the Rams must make sure the ball lands in, or gets through, the hands of Olbrich as often as possible, his importance cannot be understated. The Rams have been the best all season and they must bring their best again two more times.
What Can’t Go Wrong
After losing their R16 game against the Bulls the Rams know that Taylor Britt is going to be targeted in the finals, he is invaluable to the team and the Bulls understood this and capitalised on it. The Rams must be prepared for Britt to be targeted and will need an option ‘B’ otherwise things could turn south. Kaia Isaac and Tama Isaac will both be important and play the perfect covers for Britt is he cops extra attention again.
What Must Go Right
Coach Aaron Young has an incredible roster at his disposal, especially the top seven players, and his rotations will be critical to the Tuatara’s run in the Final 6. He must get this right. The class of Tom Vodanovich, Corey Webster and Reuben Te Rangi is unquestionable, not to mention the star quality both Rob Loe and Cam Gliddon bring, but in Charlie Dalton and Braydon Iuli there is a level of exciting youth and exuberance and using these young guns the right way will be vital. Ensuring every player eats and delivers must be perfected via the rotations.
What Can’t Go Wrong
Rob Loe must stay on the court and avoid foul trouble - he is the most unstoppable player in the League if he doesn’t have a cloud of fouls hanging over his head. The Tuatara can cover most gaps on the floor if and when required, but Loe is the ace in the deck and must play big minutes. At all costs, the Tuatara must work in numbers defensively and ensure they are stopping opponents at the arc, thus protecting Loe at the rim. The bigger the minutes for Loe, the better the chances of the Tuatara finally cracking it for a championship.
What Must Go Right
The time has arrived for the Cameron brothers. We know Carlin Davison will do the mercurial, we know Mitch McCarron will bring the leadership, and we know Quinton Bailey and Derone Raukawa will be solid, but it’s Flynn Cameron and Tobias Cameron who must own the Final 6 stage. At their best the Cameron boys are lethal weapons, they give their best at both ends of the floor and they feed off each other’s confidence. If Flynn and Tobias own the moment, then the Airs could go all the way. Is this their time?
What Can’t Go Wrong
Elijah Minnie can’t be an onlooker - the Airs need to get him involved and going. If Minnie is kept quiet then the Airs might not have enough firepower to get past the likes of the Rams, let alone the Giants. Minnie’s importance as a running mate for Davison is critical, he must take some of the attention off his young teammate. The Airs also need to steer clear of being slowed down, playing up-tempo and running at all costs is a strength. Without Sam Froling in the middle, if the Airs are forced to play at a pedestrian pace it will take away the strengths of their young and athletic runners. Fast and furious is the key, not slow and steady.
What Must Go Right
Ben Ayre and Izayah Le’afa must be joined at the hip and united, together they could prove to be an unstoppable force for the Saints. We know Hyrum Harris, Tohi Smith-Milner and Terrence Henderson Jr will bring structure and competitiveness, but it’s the relentless work ethic of Ayre and Le’afa that most teams will struggle to contain. The Saints also need to get the absolute best out of coach Zico Coronel. A championship winning coach in 2021, Coronel has the proven credentials to lead his team to another title, but he must keep his head and avoid distractions, especially when it comes to the officiating.
What Can’t Go Wrong
Behavioural issues have plagued the Saints all season long. From the coach and down the roster, this team gives up too many free shots to opponents. The Saints must keep their heads in the game and avoid technical fouls. They also need to make sure they get to the rim if the three-ball isn’t dropping. Relying on their outside shooting alone might not be enough, being versatile enough to keep opposition teams guessing will be an asset that might see them push hard for a 13th championship.
What Must Go Right
Not surprisingly, Luther Muhammad must shine on the big stage. The League’s top scorer has been a dominant force all season long, and if he fires during the playoffs then this is a team capable of big things. However, the most important asset the Bulls have is unity and an ability to follow a game plan – they must get this right. When they are locked-in and committed to the job, this is a team with proven success, including wins in Wellington and Christchurch. The too often under-valued returns of Isaac Davidson and Lee Skinner are also must-haves, they fly under the radar way too much – if they are active then the Bulls will be hard to contain.
What Can’t Go Wrong
The excessive fouling is a major concern and has easily been a thorn all season long. The Bulls need to adjust to the whistle and keep their stars on the court. If Muhammad or Sam Timmins hit foul trouble it will quickly lead to some major issues for coach Sebastian Gleim. Opposition teams have punished the Bulls from the Chemist Warehouse stripe all season long and that must stop. The Bulls know their weakness and only they can fix it.
What Must Go Right
The Giants must get Kobe Langley healthy and back on court, his importance to this team is as high as any one player to any of the other five finalists. The Giants also need to shoot well from outside – this is their biggest weakness (worst 3PT % in the League) – or adapt quickly and attack the rim with force. Without Theo Akwuba in the middle, the Giants must play to the strength of a mobile Dan Fotu who could be a real handful for Carlin Davison and Quintin Bailey if he can stay on the move. And lastly, every Giant must bring their best and play to their strengths because lapses in concentration have hurt this team way too many times this season – get this right and the Giants might just surprise a few people.
What Can’t Go Wrong
The Giants must overcome their lack of size, which will be made a bit easier against the Airs given there is no Sam Froling. However, if the Giants do progress, they will then need to deal with Lachie Olbrich, which will hardly be a walk in the park. Also, the Giants can’t afford for Dan Grida to get into foul trouble – the star Aussie attacker has been fouled out twice this season and landed on four fouls three times. Grida is critical to the Giants and must play as many minutes as he can handle.
