Big Barrel Hawks (7-10 10th) v Mills Albert Wellington Saints (14-4, 2nd)
The Hawks are on the edge of the finals chase, and must have a win to keep their faint hopes alive, but the Saints are in the race for the top overall seed and the home court advantage that comes with it. Can the Hawks claim another shorthanded win to sweep the season series or will the Saints give themselves to the top of the ladder with a win?
When: Saturday 28th June, Rapid League 3:30pm, Sal's NBL 4:30pm
Where: Rodney Green Arenas, Taradale Napier
Watch: Live in New Zealand on Sky Sport 2 | USA: ESPN3 | International: FIBA YouTube |
Last Time Out:
The Hawks flew to Invercargill looking to complete a season sweep of the Sharks, but couldn’t overcome a tough start on the road. Despite strong efforts from Dan Grida (24pts, 10rbs, 3ast) and Wani Swaka Lo Buluk (20pts, 9rbs), the Hawks found themselves chasing after Southland jumped out to a double-digit lead by quarter time, sparked by Sam Timmins’ big night (28pts, 11rbs, 5ast, 1blk). Hawke’s Bay battled to close the gap, but struggled to find their shooting rhythm, finishing at 36% from the floor, while the Sharks controlled the boards with a +12 rebounding edge. Josiah Allick (14pts, 13rbs) and Keylan Boone (17pts, 13rbs) also chipped in double-doubles for Southland, who stretched the lead beyond 20 in the second half on the way to handing the Hawks a 92-76 defeat.
The Saints welcomed a short-handed Whai side to Wellington and were determined not to let them score another upset this season. After a competitive first quarter, the Saints’ defense clamped down and set the tone for the rest of the night. A dominant 20-0 run in the third quarter blew the game open and effectively sealed the result. Jordan Ngatai led the way for a balanced Saints attack that saw five players finish in double figures. The Saints capitalised on the Whai’s struggles, forcing 15 turnovers and limiting them to 43% shooting from the field and just 47% from the line, on the way to a convincing 103-77 win at home.
What to Expect:
The Hawks are still without a slew of players so will need to tighten their rotation and lift as a collective to take down the Saints, but will take heart from their last meeting when they were able to beat Wellington without Dan Grida. The key for the Hawks will be lifting their offense, as the squad has managed to top 81 points only once in their current 5 game slide. Dan Grida is the Hawks offensive engine, both in transition and the half court, but needs support from Wani Swaka Lo Buluk and Brandon Alston to keep pace with a high scoring Saints. Luca Yates will need to play Saints big man Nick Musynzski to a standstill, and has the ability to control the glass even against a potent front line. A young core of depth has the experience to be impactful, but will need to lift efficiency on offense and lock down on the defensive end.
The Saints have displayed a knack for finding wins, as they've won 7 of their last 8 to sit equal on wins at the top of the table with the Rams, and can grind out defensive wins or lift the offense to a higher level. Shaun Bruce looks to have answered the call and is on the roster again, providing cover for the departed Shea Ili. The depth will be welcomed but is almost a bonus for Wellington who seemed to have settled on a rotation of late. Jordan Ngatai has become a truly efficient scorer, able to offer big totals without big volume. Izayah Le'afa and Nick Marshall can both explode at any time while patrolling the passing lanes defensively. Muszynski may be the best defender in the comp, controlling the glass while swatting away paint attempts with ease while Hyrum Harris is the heartbeat of the team, able to provide whatever is needed whenever it is asked for. The depth has proven capable with recent opportunities, but will get limited chances moving forward as Aaron Young liikely tightens his lineup for the finals.
Matchup to Watch: Dan Grida v Jordan Ngatai - Grida does it all, and does it at pace, his energy infectious as he flies around the court. Ngatai normally lower on the energy scale, but no less impactful, how their clash plays out will have a big part in deciding the outcome.
Stats that Might Matter:
| Stat | Hawks | Saints |
| Scoring Offense | 87.67 (7th) | 95.33 (2nd) |
| Scoring Defense | 95.17 (9th) | 83.72 (2nd) |
| Effective Field Goal % | 55% (4th) | 54% (3rd) |
| Field Goal % Defense | 47% (9th) | 41% (1st) |
| Free Throw Rate | 32% (1st) | 28% (6th) |
| Free Throw % | 75% (1st) | 75% (2nd) |
| Three Point Rate | 40% (7th) | 39% (7th) |
| Three Point % | 31% (8th) | 35% (2nd) |
| Turnover Rate | 14% (9th) | 12% (4th) |
| Assist Rate | 53% (last) | 59% (4th) |
| Offensive Rebound Rate | 20% (last) | 25% (7th) |
| Defensive Rebound Rate | 71% (9th) | 77% (1st) |
| Block Rate | 5% (10th) | 13% (1st) |
| Steal Rate | 7% (last) | 10% (5th) |
all advanced stats courtesy of spatialjam.com
