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The Nuggets have now lost 12 straight, but not for a lack of fight. They’ve often gone toe-to-toe with opponents for three quarters, only to fall away in the fourth. In fact, they’re minus 40 in the fourth quarter across their last five games. While reinforcements aren’t on the way, three of those games saw the Nuggets either leading or tied heading into the final period, suggesting that better execution down the stretch could finally snap the skid.

Offensively, the Nuggets rely heavily on Don Carey Jr. and Jono Janssen, with Jaylen Sebree needing to take on more scoring responsibility. Josh Aitcheson and Matthew Bardsley round out the starting five, while the bench unit of Martin, Freeman, Smiler, and Knox brings grit and energy. To have a chance, Otago will need to slow the pace, protect the ball (which they do reasonably well), and lock in defensively to disrupt Canterbury’s offensive flow. Some timely three-point shooting wouldn’t hurt either.

The Rams, on the other hand, are riding a nine-game win streak and have proven they’re comfortable in close contests, winning four of their last five by single digits. With Taylor Britt and Sean MacDonald leading the backcourt, the Rams have two trusted closers who can create or finish when games hang in the balance. Their big-man rotation of Tohi Smith-Milner, Kyle Bowen, and Max Darling blends power and skill, dominating inside while complementing perimeter threats.

Canterbury sits in the top four of nearly every offensive metric and leads the league in offensive rebounding and turnover efficiency—giving them a consistent possession edge. While they’re dealing with some roster unavailability, the return of Kaia Isaac should help balance the rotation. If the Rams stay focused, this is a game they should control—but the Nuggets have a knack for making things uncomfortable.

Matchup to Watch: Matthew Bardsley v Walter Brown - Two wiry, athletic wings with a defensive mindset will look to swing the game with hustle plays and smart reads. Brown brings explosive defence and hard drives to the rim, while Bardsley counters with savvy, experience, and quiet consistency. Expect both to impact the margins.