Steelformers Taranaki Airs (10-6, 3rd) v NBS Nelson Giants (6-11, 10th)
The Airs are on the cusp of clinching a postseason spot and are hoping a bit of good fortune can help them lock in a home semi-final. The Giants, meanwhile, have won three of their last four to keep themselves within reach of the finals, but a loss here would all but end their postseason dreams. Can the Airs seal their playoff berth, or will the Giants stay in the hunt with a crucial road win?
When: Wednesday 18th June, Rapid League 6pm, Sal's NBL 7pm
Where: TSB Stadium, New Plymouth
Watch: Live in New Zealand on Sky Sport 2 | USA: ESPN3 | International: FIBA YouTube |
Last Time Out:
The Airs travelled to Hawke’s Bay to face a Hawks squad missing key pieces, and with Jack Andrew a late scratch due to illness, the playing field levelled somewhat. The Hawks started strong, led by Wani Swaka Lo Buluk (26 pts, 5 rbs, 2 ast), but Craig Moller (19 pts, 11 rbs, 2 ast) responded, trimming the deficit to just two at halftime. In the second half, the Airs turned up the execution, with Carlin Davison (9 pts, 10 rbs, 6 ast, 1 stl, 1 blk) showcasing his playmaking while the team dominated the glass (44–29 rebounding edge). The Hawks kept battling, but the Airs pulled away for a hard-fought 84–72 win.
The Giants hosted a struggling Nuggets team and jumped out to a double-digit lead, powered by Alex Robinson’s (9 pts, 4 rbs, 11 ast) orchestration and Jeremy Combs’ (25 pts, 11 rbs, 3 ast) efficient scoring. The Nuggets clawed back through Jono Janssen (26 pts, 15 rbs, 1 ast, 1 blk) and Don Carey Jr. (22 pts, 8 ast, 3 rbs), cutting the margin to two at halftime. But the Giants surged again, with the Jones brothers stepping up, Hayden (19 pts, 6 rbs) and Andrew (17 pts, 3 rbs, 2 ast), and held off the visitors for a 94–82 victory.
What to Expect:
The Airs have slowed their pace recently, looking to assert their size and strength in the half-court. While they’re more patient offensively, they remain a high-octane unit that will run when the chance arises. Carlin Davison is the engine, equally effective as a ball handler or finisher, and his defensive versatility adds further impact. Armon Fletcher has similar game-breaking potential, though he’s less involved in initiating. Craig Moller has slotted in seamlessly, complementing Jack Andrew’s interior presence, while Dom Kelman-Poto and Quintin Bailey provide rebounding and physicality off the bench.
Point guard Deng Dut has shown flashes but is still finding his rhythm, while Jaylen Gerrand, Scott Telfer, and Jack Exeter are offering solid depth. The Airs will look to control the boards, but against the Giants’ size, they may need to find form from deep to secure the win.
The Giants are riding a mid-season resurgence but will be without key depth, with Hayden Jones and Lachlan Crate away on Junior National Team duty. That leaves less margin for error among their starters. Alex Robinson remains the offensive catalyst, when he’s pushing the pace or finding gaps, the Giants flow well. Liam Judd and Andrew Jones thrive off his energy, particularly in transition and off-ball action.
Jeremy Combs is the offensive foundation, a punishing post presence who commands attention, but also has the skill to hit the three or dish to cutters. Cal McRae is nearly unstoppable if he seals deep but can be a liability guarding the perimeter. Sam Dempster, Alex McNaught, Aston Inwood, and James Matthews will all see increased roles, and all are capable contributors, with or without the ball.
Controlling the defensive glass and taking care of the ball will be key, the winner of the possession battle could well be the winner of the game.
Matchup to Watch: Craig Moller v Jeremy Combs - This power forward battle will shape the outcome. Combs has excelled in one-on-one situations all season, but Moller has the length, speed, and experience to challenge him. Moller’s ability to stretch the floor and run in transition could test Combs’ mobility, while both will look to dominate down low. Staying out of foul trouble will be crucial for both teams chances to grab the win.
Stats that Might Matter:
| Stat | Airs | Giants |
| Scoring Offense | 94.88 (3rd) | 89.12 (6th) |
| Scoring Defense | 89.63 (5th) | 91.59 (7th) |
| Effective Field Goal % | 52% (5th) | 52% (6th) |
| Field Goal % Defense | 44% (2nd) | 47% (8th) |
| Free Throw Rate | 32% (1st) | 30% (4th) |
| Free Throw % | 73% (4th) | 68% (10th) |
| Three Point Rate | 37% (9th) | 35% (last) |
| Three Point % | 32% (7th) | 32% (6th) |
| Turnover Rate | 13% (6th) | 13% (7th) |
| Assist Rate | 57% (5th) | 57% (5th) |
| Offensive Rebound Rate | 31% (2nd) | 30% (3rd) |
| Defensive Rebound Rate | 76% (4th) | 72% (7th) |
| Block Rate | 11% (2nd) | 6% (8th) |
| Steal Rate | 10% (3rd) | 9% (8th) |
all advanced stats courtesy of spatialjam.com
